Matchday 1 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 22, 2015
Deportivo 0–0 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?
Deportivo and Real Sociedad drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Deportivo win 2 of 10, Real Sociedad 5, and 3 end level. Real Sociedad made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 0 | 0.60 |
 Real Sociedad | 0 | 1.08 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Deportivo about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 2, 3 end level, Real Sociedad win 5.
- 1 DEP 2 RSO 1
- 2 DEP 1 RSO 0
- 3 DEP 0 RSO 0
- 4 DEP 0 RSO 0
- 5 DEP 1 RSO 1
- 6 DEP 0 RSO 3
- 7 DEP 0 RSO 2
- 8 DEP 1 RSO 2
- 9 DEP 0 RSO 1
- 10 DEP 1 RSO 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 21%, 31% end level, Real Sociedad win 48%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 1.1% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 4.5% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 15.0% |
| Draw | 31.4% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 27.5% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 13.9% |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 6.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 16 | 0 | 0.60 | −0.60 |
 Real Sociedad | 10 | 0 | 1.08 | −1.08 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 71' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% DEP |
| 2 | 41' | Armindo Tué Na Bangna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% DEP |
| 3 | 61' | Pedro Mosquera Parada didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% RSO |
| 4 | 66' | Fayçal Fajr didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +2% RSO |
| 5 | 71' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +16% DEP |
| 6 | 71' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% DEP |
| 7 | 82' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% RSO |
| 8 | 84' | Federico Nicolás Cartabia didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +2% RSO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 20% · draw 32% · Real Sociedad 48%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Sociedad by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 21% · draw 31% · Real Sociedad 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Málaga 0–0 Sevilla Aug 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Rayo 0–0 Valencia Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Getafe Aug 22, 2015 · replay 28% for Espanyol
- Atlético 1–0 Las Palmas Aug 22, 2015 · replay 57% for Atlético
- Levante 1–2 Celta Aug 23, 2015 · replay 81% for Celta
- Betis 1–1 Villarreal Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Sporting 0–0 Real Madrid Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Barcelona Aug 23, 2015 · replay 85% for Barcelona
- Granada 1–3 Eibar Aug 24, 2015 · replay 83% for Eibar