Matchday 1 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 23, 2015
Levante 1–2 Celta: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Levante 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Celta win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Celta made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Levante | 1 | 0.49 |
 Celta Vigo | 2 | 1.68 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Celta about even · −19 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 1, 2 end level, Celta win 7.
- 1 LEV 1 CEL 0
- 2 LEV 1 CEL 1
- 3 LEV 1 CEL 1
- 4 LEV 0 CEL 4
- 5 LEV 0 CEL 3
- 6 LEV 0 CEL 2
- 7 LEV 0 CEL 2
- 8 LEV 0 CEL 1
- 9 LEV 0 CEL 1
- 10 LEV 0 CEL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 9%, 21% end level, Celta win 70%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 0.2% |
| Levante by 2 | 1.4% |
| Levante by 1 | 7.0% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
| Celta by 1 | 27.0% |
| Celta by 2 | 22.7% |
| Celta by 3+ | 20.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 11 | 1 | 0.49 | +0.51 |
 Celta | 14 | 2 | 1.68 | +0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 39' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 54' | José Antonio García Rabasco scored from a free kick | 0.07 |
| 76' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shot | 0.81 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% CEL |
| 2 | 39' | The game turned hereFabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +27% CEL |
| 3 | 48' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% LEV |
| 4 | 54' | José Antonio García Rabasco scored from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +32% LEV |
| 5 | 64' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% LEV |
| 6 | 66' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% LEV |
| 7 | 76' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shotFinishing · 81% chance | +8% CEL |
| 8 | 97' | Víctor Casadesús Castaño didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 7% · draw 19% · Celta 74%
- Final margin
- Celta by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Levante
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 9% · draw 21% · Celta 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 81% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Málaga 0–0 Sevilla Aug 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Rayo 0–0 Valencia Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Getafe Aug 22, 2015 · replay 28% for Espanyol
- Deportivo 0–0 Real Sociedad Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Atlético 1–0 Las Palmas Aug 22, 2015 · replay 57% for Atlético
- Betis 1–1 Villarreal Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Sporting 0–0 Real Madrid Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Barcelona Aug 23, 2015 · replay 85% for Barcelona
- Granada 1–3 Eibar Aug 24, 2015 · replay 83% for Eibar