Matchday 1 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 22, 2015
Rayo 0–0 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Rayo and Valencia drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Rayo win 2 of 10, Valencia 6, and 2 end level. Valencia made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 0.70 |
 Valencia | 0 | 1.69 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Rayo about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 2, 2 end level, Valencia win 6.
- 1 RAY 1 VAL 0
- 2 RAY 2 VAL 1
- 3 RAY 1 VAL 1
- 4 RAY 0 VAL 0
- 5 RAY 0 VAL 4
- 6 RAY 1 VAL 3
- 7 RAY 1 VAL 3
- 8 RAY 0 VAL 2
- 9 RAY 0 VAL 1
- 10 RAY 1 VAL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 16%, 23% end level, Valencia win 61%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 1.1% |
| Rayo by 2 | 3.4% |
| Rayo by 1 | 11.0% |
| Draw | 23.4% |
| Valencia by 1 | 25.1% |
| Valencia by 2 | 19.1% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 16.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 8 | 0 | 0.70 | −0.70 |
 Valencia | 10 | 0 | 1.69 | −1.69 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11' | Santiago Mina Lorenzo didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 18' | Santiago Mina Lorenzo didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 25' | Pablo Daniel Piatti didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
| 65' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves didn’t score from a shot | 0.56 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Santiago Mina Lorenzo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +9% RAY |
| 2 | 18' | Santiago Mina Lorenzo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +10% RAY |
| 3 | 25' | Pablo Daniel Piatti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +14% RAY |
| 4 | 34' | Shkodran Mustafi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% RAY |
| 5 | 65' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 56% chance | +20% VAL |
| 6 | 67' | Zakaria Bakkali didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% RAY |
| 7 | 82' | João Pedro Cavaco Cancelo didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +2% RAY |
| 8 | 90' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +8% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 11% · draw 24% · Valencia 64%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Rayo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Valencia by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 16% · draw 23% · Valencia 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Málaga 0–0 Sevilla Aug 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Getafe Aug 22, 2015 · replay 28% for Espanyol
- Deportivo 0–0 Real Sociedad Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Atlético 1–0 Las Palmas Aug 22, 2015 · replay 57% for Atlético
- Levante 1–2 Celta Aug 23, 2015 · replay 81% for Celta
- Betis 1–1 Villarreal Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Sporting 0–0 Real Madrid Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Barcelona Aug 23, 2015 · replay 85% for Barcelona
- Granada 1–3 Eibar Aug 24, 2015 · replay 83% for Eibar