Matchday 1 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 22, 2015
Atlético 1–0 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Las Palmas 1–0, and the replays lean Atlético’s way: 4 wins in 10, 2 for Las Palmas, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.5 expected goals to 0.5).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 1 | 0.54 |
 Las Palmas | 0 | 0.50 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +43 Atlético lucky · −43 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 4, 4 end level, Las Palmas win 2.
- 1 ATM 1 LPA 0
- 2 ATM 1 LPA 0
- 3 ATM 1 LPA 0
- 4 ATM 2 LPA 0
- 5 ATM 0 LPA 0
- 6 ATM 1 LPA 1
- 7 ATM 0 LPA 0
- 8 ATM 1 LPA 1
- 9 ATM 0 LPA 1
- 10 ATM 0 LPA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 36%, 43% end level, Las Palmas win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 2.1% |
| Atlético by 2 | 8.1% |
| Atlético by 1 | 25.6% |
| Draw | 43.3% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 16.8% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 3.5% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 12 | 1 | 0.54 | +0.46 |
 Las Palmas | 7 | 0 | 0.50 | −0.50 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a free kick | 0.06 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Tiago Cardoso Mendes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% LPA |
| 2 | 15' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +22% ATM |
| 3 | 45' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% LPA |
| 4 | 48' | Dani Castellano Betancor didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% ATM |
| 5 | 57' | David Simón Rodríguez Santana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% ATM |
| 6 | 70' | Pedro Bigas Rigo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ATM |
| 7 | 71' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% ATM |
| 8 | 82' | Aythami Artiles Oliva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +9% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 30% · draw 43% · Las Palmas 28%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 36% · draw 43% · Las Palmas 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 1 matches, 2015-16 · Atlético · Las Palmas
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Málaga 0–0 Sevilla Aug 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Rayo 0–0 Valencia Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Getafe Aug 22, 2015 · replay 28% for Espanyol
- Deportivo 0–0 Real Sociedad Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Levante 1–2 Celta Aug 23, 2015 · replay 81% for Celta
- Betis 1–1 Villarreal Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Sporting 0–0 Real Madrid Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Barcelona Aug 23, 2015 · replay 85% for Barcelona
- Granada 1–3 Eibar Aug 24, 2015 · replay 83% for Eibar