Matchday 1 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 24, 2015
Granada 1–3 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Eibar beat Granada 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Eibar win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Eibar made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Granada | 1 | 1.19 |
 Eibar | 3 | 2.27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Eibar about even · −17 Granada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Granada win 1, 1 ends level, Eibar win 8.
- 1 GRA 3 EIB 2
- 2 GRA 0 EIB 0
- 3 GRA 1 EIB 6
- 4 GRA 0 EIB 4
- 5 GRA 0 EIB 3
- 6 GRA 1 EIB 4
- 7 GRA 1 EIB 3
- 8 GRA 0 EIB 2
- 9 GRA 1 EIB 2
- 10 GRA 2 EIB 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Granada win 11%, 13% end level, Eibar win 76%. The line is what actually happened: Eibar by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Granada by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Granada by 2 | 2.5% |
| Granada by 1 | 7.2% |
| Draw | 13.0% |
| Eibar by 1 | 19.1% |
| Eibar by 2 | 20.8% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 36.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Granada | 13 | 1 | 1.19 | −0.19 |
 Eibar | 10 | 3 | 2.27 | +0.73 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 21' | Adrián González Morales scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 34' | Gonzalo Escalante scored from a shot | 0.89 |
| 49' | Rubén Rochina Naixes scored from a shot | 0.35 |
| 66' | Mikel Arruabarrena Aranbide scored from a shot | 0.91 |
When it happened
Granada’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21' | The game turned hereAdrián González Morales scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +25% EIB |
| 2 | 25' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% EIB |
| 3 | 25' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% EIB |
| 4 | 34' | Gonzalo Escalante scored from a shotFinishing · 89% chance | +2% EIB |
| 5 | 42' | Francisco Medina Luna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chanceRobert Ibáñez Castro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% EIB |
| 6 | 49' | Rubén Rochina Naixes scored from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +10% GRA |
| 7 | 60' | Rubén Rochina Naixes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% EIB |
| 8 | 62' | Jean-Sylvain Claude Babin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% EIB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Granada 3% · draw 8% · Eibar 89%
- Final margin
- Eibar by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Eibar
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Granada 11% · draw 13% · Eibar 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Eibar win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 1 matches, 2015-16 · Granada · Eibar
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