Matchday 1 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 22, 2015
Espanyol 1–0 Getafe: who deserved to win?
Espanyol beat Getafe 1–0, but the replays lean toward Getafe: 6 wins in 10 to Espanyol’s 1, 3 end level. Getafe made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.3.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +72 Espanyol very lucky · −72 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 1, 3 end level, Getafe win 6.
- 1 ESP 1 GET 0
- 2 ESP 0 GET 0
- 3 ESP 0 GET 0
- 4 ESP 1 GET 1
- 5 ESP 0 GET 3
- 6 ESP 0 GET 2
- 7 ESP 0 GET 2
- 8 ESP 0 GET 1
- 9 ESP 0 GET 1
- 10 ESP 0 GET 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 12%, 32% end level, Getafe win 56%. The line is what actually happened: Espanyol by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 0.2% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 1.5% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 9.9% |
| Draw | 32.4% |
| Getafe by 1 | 30.4% |
| Getafe by 2 | 17.0% |
| Getafe by 3+ | 8.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 5 | 1 | 0.29 | +0.71 |
 Getafe | 13 | 0 | 1.35 | −1.35 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Salvador Sevilla López scored from a free kick | 0.09 |
| 86' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shot | 0.64 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Salvador Sevilla López scored from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +20% ESP |
| 2 | 7' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% ESP |
| 3 | 30' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% ESP |
| 4 | 33' | Pedro León Sánchez Gil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% ESP |
| 5 | 62' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ESP |
| 6 | 63' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ESP |
| 7 | 86' | Ian González Nieto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +12% ESP |
| 8 | 86' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 64% chance | +30% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 8% · draw 22% · Getafe 70%
- Final margin
- Espanyol by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Espanyol
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Getafe by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 12% · draw 32% · Getafe 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Espanyol win 28% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Málaga 0–0 Sevilla Aug 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Rayo 0–0 Valencia Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Deportivo 0–0 Real Sociedad Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Atlético 1–0 Las Palmas Aug 22, 2015 · replay 57% for Atlético
- Levante 1–2 Celta Aug 23, 2015 · replay 81% for Celta
- Betis 1–1 Villarreal Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Sporting 0–0 Real Madrid Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Barcelona Aug 23, 2015 · replay 85% for Barcelona
- Granada 1–3 Eibar Aug 24, 2015 · replay 83% for Eibar