Matchday 4 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 18, 2015
Getafe 1–0 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Getafe beat Málaga 1–0, and the replays lean Getafe’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Málaga, 3 end level. Getafe made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.6.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Getafe lucky · −33 Málaga
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 5, 3 end level, Málaga win 2.
- 1 GET 1 MAL 0
- 2 GET 1 MAL 0
- 3 GET 1 MAL 0
- 4 GET 2 MAL 0
- 5 GET 2 MAL 0
- 6 GET 0 MAL 0
- 7 GET 0 MAL 0
- 8 GET 1 MAL 1
- 9 GET 1 MAL 2
- 10 GET 0 MAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 51%, 32% end level, Málaga win 18%. The line is what actually happened: Getafe by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 7.3% |
| Getafe by 2 | 14.9% |
| Getafe by 1 | 28.5% |
| Draw | 31.8% |
| Málaga by 1 | 13.4% |
| Málaga by 2 | 3.5% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 10 | 1 | 0.94 | +0.06 |
 Málaga | 13 | 0 | 0.61 | −0.61 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Stefan Šćepović scored from a shot | 0.19 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Stefan Šćepović scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +18% GET |
| 2 | 21' | Ricardo Jorge Luz Horta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% GET |
| 3 | 25' | Stefan Šćepović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +3% MAL |
| 4 | 46' | Ricardo Jorge Luz Horta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% GET |
| 5 | 58' | Víctor Rodríguez Romero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +2% MAL |
| 6 | 77' | José Luis García del Pozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% GET |
| 7 | 81' | Sérgio Paulo Barbosa Valente didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +2% GET |
| 8 | 92' | Adnane Tighadouini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% GET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 45% · draw 32% · Málaga 23%
- Final margin
- Getafe by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Getafe
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Getafe by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 51% · draw 32% · Málaga 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Getafe win 67% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Eibar 0–2 Atlético Sep 19, 2015 · replay 81% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 2–3 Espanyol Sep 19, 2015 · replay 55% for Espanyol
- Valencia 0–0 Betis Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Real Madrid 1–0 Granada Sep 19, 2015 · replay 77% for Real Madrid
- Villarreal 3–1 Athletic Sep 20, 2015 · replay 72% for Villarreal
- Las Palmas 0–1 Rayo Sep 20, 2015 · replay 69% for Rayo
- Deportivo 2–3 Sporting Sep 20, 2015 · replay 54% for Sporting
- Sevilla 1–2 Celta Sep 20, 2015 · replay 55% for Celta
- Barcelona 4–1 Levante Sep 20, 2015 · replay 97% for Barcelona