Matchday 4 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 20, 2015
Deportivo 2–3 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Sporting beat Deportivo 3–2, but the replays call it even: Sporting win 4 of 10, Deportivo 3, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 0.9).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 2 | 1.06 |
 Sporting Gijón | 3 | 0.95 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +46 Sporting lucky · −46 Deportivo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 3, 3 end level, Sporting win 4.
- 1 DEP 2 SPO 1
- 2 DEP 1 SPO 0
- 3 DEP 2 SPO 0
- 4 DEP 0 SPO 0
- 5 DEP 0 SPO 0
- 6 DEP 1 SPO 1
- 7 DEP 0 SPO 2
- 8 DEP 0 SPO 2
- 9 DEP 0 SPO 1
- 10 DEP 0 SPO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 30%, 31% end level, Sporting win 39%. The line is what actually happened: Sporting by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 2.5% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 8.4% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 19.5% |
| Draw | 30.7% |
| Sporting by 1 | 23.3% |
| Sporting by 2 | 11.1% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 4.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 20 | 2 | 1.06 | +0.94 |
 Sporting | 5 | 3 | 0.95 | +2.05 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a shot | 0.39 |
| 7' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 15' | Juan Francisco Moreno Fuertes scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 27' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 33' | Alejandro Menéndez Díez scored from a shot | 0.17 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +15% SPO |
| 2 | 7' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +12% SPO |
| 3 | 15' | Juan Francisco Moreno Fuertes scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +17% DEP |
| 4 | 27' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +28% DEP |
| 5 | 33' | The game turned hereAlejandro Menéndez Díez scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +24% SPO |
| 6 | 48' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% SPO |
| 7 | 70' | Pedro Mosquera Parada didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% SPO |
| 8 | 71' | Alejandro Arribas Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% SPO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 34% · draw 31% · Sporting 35%
- Final margin
- Sporting by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Sporting
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sporting by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 30% · draw 31% · Sporting 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sporting win 54% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 4 matches, 2015-16 · Deportivo · Sporting
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- Getafe 1–0 Málaga Sep 18, 2015 · replay 67% for Getafe
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