Matchday 4 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 20, 2015
Sevilla 1–2 Celta: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Sevilla 2–1, but the replays call it even: Celta win 4 of 10, Sevilla 3, 3 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 1 | 1.10 |
 Celta Vigo | 2 | 0.80 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Celta lucky · −45 Sevilla
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 3, 3 end level, Celta win 4.
- 1 SEV 1 CEL 0
- 2 SEV 1 CEL 0
- 3 SEV 3 CEL 1
- 4 SEV 1 CEL 1
- 5 SEV 2 CEL 2
- 6 SEV 1 CEL 1
- 7 SEV 0 CEL 2
- 8 SEV 0 CEL 2
- 9 SEV 0 CEL 1
- 10 SEV 1 CEL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sevilla win 29%, 33% end level, Celta win 39%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sevilla by 3+ | 2.3% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 7.0% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 19.6% |
| Draw | 32.5% |
| Celta by 1 | 23.5% |
| Celta by 2 | 10.4% |
| Celta by 3+ | 4.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 13 | 1 | 1.10 | −0.10 |
 Celta | 15 | 2 | 0.80 | +1.20 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 25' | Daniel Wass scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 53' | Fernando Llorente Torres scored from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Sevilla’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | The game turned hereManuel Agudo Durán scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +25% CEL |
| 2 | 25' | Daniel Wass scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +17% CEL |
| 3 | 44' | Éver Maximiliano David Banega didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +2% CEL |
| 4 | 49' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +2% CEL |
| 5 | 53' | Fernando Llorente Torres scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +11% SEV |
| 6 | 58' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% CEL |
| 7 | 78' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% CEL |
| 8 | 89' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sevilla 43% · draw 30% · Celta 27%
- Final margin
- Celta by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Sevilla 29% · draw 33% · Celta 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 55% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–0 Málaga Sep 18, 2015 · replay 67% for Getafe
- Eibar 0–2 Atlético Sep 19, 2015 · replay 81% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 2–3 Espanyol Sep 19, 2015 · replay 55% for Espanyol
- Valencia 0–0 Betis Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Real Madrid 1–0 Granada Sep 19, 2015 · replay 77% for Real Madrid
- Villarreal 3–1 Athletic Sep 20, 2015 · replay 72% for Villarreal
- Las Palmas 0–1 Rayo Sep 20, 2015 · replay 69% for Rayo
- Deportivo 2–3 Sporting Sep 20, 2015 · replay 54% for Sporting
- Barcelona 4–1 Levante Sep 20, 2015 · replay 97% for Barcelona