Matchday 4 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 19, 2015
Eibar 0–2 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Eibar 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 0 | 0.32 |
 Atlético Madrid | 2 | 1.50 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Atlético about even · −19 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eibar win 1, 2 end level, Atlético win 7.
- 1 EIB 1 ATM 0
- 2 EIB 1 ATM 1
- 3 EIB 0 ATM 0
- 4 EIB 0 ATM 4
- 5 EIB 0 ATM 2
- 6 EIB 0 ATM 2
- 7 EIB 1 ATM 3
- 8 EIB 0 ATM 1
- 9 EIB 0 ATM 1
- 10 EIB 0 ATM 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Eibar win 7%, 23% end level, Atlético win 70%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eibar by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Eibar by 2 | 0.9% |
| Eibar by 1 | 6.3% |
| Draw | 22.7% |
| Atlético by 1 | 29.5% |
| Atlético by 2 | 23.1% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 17.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 9 | 0 | 0.32 | −0.32 |
 Atlético | 14 | 2 | 1.50 | +0.50 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 61' | Ángel Martín Correa scored from a shot | 0.27 |
| 76' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shot | 0.19 |
When it happened
Eibar’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% EIB |
| 2 | 19' | Jackson Arley Martínez Valencia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% EIB |
| 3 | 22' | Luciano Vietto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% EIB |
| 4 | 26' | Jackson Arley Martínez Valencia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +8% EIB |
| 5 | 39' | Luciano Vietto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% EIB |
| 6 | 45' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% EIB |
| 7 | 61' | The game turned hereÁngel Martín Correa scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +27% ATM |
| 8 | 76' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +7% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eibar 2% · draw 7% · Atlético 91%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Eibar 7% · draw 23% · Atlético 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 81% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 4 matches, 2015-16 · Eibar · Atlético
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–0 Málaga Sep 18, 2015 · replay 67% for Getafe
- Real Sociedad 2–3 Espanyol Sep 19, 2015 · replay 55% for Espanyol
- Valencia 0–0 Betis Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Real Madrid 1–0 Granada Sep 19, 2015 · replay 77% for Real Madrid
- Villarreal 3–1 Athletic Sep 20, 2015 · replay 72% for Villarreal
- Las Palmas 0–1 Rayo Sep 20, 2015 · replay 69% for Rayo
- Deportivo 2–3 Sporting Sep 20, 2015 · replay 54% for Sporting
- Sevilla 1–2 Celta Sep 20, 2015 · replay 55% for Celta
- Barcelona 4–1 Levante Sep 20, 2015 · replay 97% for Barcelona