Matchday 4 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 19, 2015
Real Madrid 1–0 Granada: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Granada 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 1 | 2.49 |
 Granada | 0 | 1.17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Real Madrid about even · −23 Granada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 7, 2 end level, Granada win 1.
- 1 RMA 1 GRA 0
- 2 RMA 2 GRA 1
- 3 RMA 5 GRA 3
- 4 RMA 3 GRA 1
- 5 RMA 4 GRA 1
- 6 RMA 4 GRA 0
- 7 RMA 5 GRA 0
- 8 RMA 1 GRA 1
- 9 RMA 1 GRA 1
- 10 RMA 1 GRA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Madrid win 69%, 16% end level, Granada win 15%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 28.3% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 21.1% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 19.6% |
| Draw | 15.8% |
| Granada by 1 | 9.8% |
| Granada by 2 | 3.7% |
| Granada by 3+ | 1.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 20 | 1 | 2.49 | −1.49 |
 Granada | 12 | 0 | 1.17 | −1.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 18' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 54' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.52 |
When it happened
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +6% GRA |
| 2 | 18' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +9% GRA |
| 3 | 21' | Lucas Vázquez Iglesias didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +7% GRA |
| 4 | 30' | Luka Modrić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% GRA |
| 5 | 38' | Isaac Ajayi Success didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +8% RMA |
| 6 | 51' | Isaac Ajayi Success didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +9% RMA |
| 7 | 54' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 52% chance | +15% RMA |
| 8 | 59' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Madrid 70% · draw 17% · Granada 13%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Madrid 69% · draw 16% · Granada 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 77% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 4 matches, 2015-16 · Real Madrid · Granada
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–0 Málaga Sep 18, 2015 · replay 67% for Getafe
- Eibar 0–2 Atlético Sep 19, 2015 · replay 81% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 2–3 Espanyol Sep 19, 2015 · replay 55% for Espanyol
- Valencia 0–0 Betis Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Villarreal 3–1 Athletic Sep 20, 2015 · replay 72% for Villarreal
- Las Palmas 0–1 Rayo Sep 20, 2015 · replay 69% for Rayo
- Deportivo 2–3 Sporting Sep 20, 2015 · replay 54% for Sporting
- Sevilla 1–2 Celta Sep 20, 2015 · replay 55% for Celta
- Barcelona 4–1 Levante Sep 20, 2015 · replay 97% for Barcelona