Matchday 4 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 20, 2015
Las Palmas 0–1 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Rayo beat Las Palmas 1–0, and the replays lean Rayo’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Las Palmas, 2 end level. Rayo made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 0 | 0.77 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 1.34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Rayo lucky · −31 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 2, 2 end level, Rayo win 6.
- 1 LPA 1 RAY 0
- 2 LPA 2 RAY 0
- 3 LPA 2 RAY 2
- 4 LPA 0 RAY 0
- 5 LPA 1 RAY 5
- 6 LPA 0 RAY 2
- 7 LPA 1 RAY 3
- 8 LPA 0 RAY 1
- 9 LPA 0 RAY 1
- 10 LPA 0 RAY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 19%, 24% end level, Rayo win 56%. The line is what actually happened: Rayo by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 1.4% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 4.4% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 13.4% |
| Draw | 24.4% |
| Rayo by 1 | 26.5% |
| Rayo by 2 | 17.3% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 12.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 8 | 0 | 0.77 | −0.77 |
 Rayo | 17 | 1 | 1.34 | −0.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 28' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 41' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shot | 0.25 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Adrián Embarba Blázquez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% LPA |
| 2 | 25' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% RAY |
| 3 | 28' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +9% RAY |
| 4 | 29' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% LPA |
| 5 | 36' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% RAY |
| 6 | 41' | The game turned hereJavier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +23% RAY |
| 7 | 47' | David Simón Rodríguez Santana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% RAY |
| 8 | 48' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 22% · draw 28% · Rayo 51%
- Final margin
- Rayo by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Rayo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 19% · draw 24% · Rayo 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Rayo win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 4 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Rayo
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–0 Málaga Sep 18, 2015 · replay 67% for Getafe
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- Real Sociedad 2–3 Espanyol Sep 19, 2015 · replay 55% for Espanyol
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- Real Madrid 1–0 Granada Sep 19, 2015 · replay 77% for Real Madrid
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- Deportivo 2–3 Sporting Sep 20, 2015 · replay 54% for Sporting
- Sevilla 1–2 Celta Sep 20, 2015 · replay 55% for Celta
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