Matchday 4 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 20, 2015
Barcelona 4–1 Levante: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Levante 4–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 9 of 10. Barcelona made the better chances: 3.5 expected goals to 0.7.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Barcelona about even · −3 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 9, 0 end level, Levante win 1.
- 1 BAR 3 LEV 2
- 2 BAR 3 LEV 1
- 3 BAR 3 LEV 0
- 4 BAR 3 LEV 0
- 5 BAR 5 LEV 1
- 6 BAR 5 LEV 0
- 7 BAR 6 LEV 1
- 8 BAR 7 LEV 1
- 9 BAR 9 LEV 1
- 10 BAR 1 LEV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 95%, 4% end level, Levante win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 72.3% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 13.8% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 8.7% |
| Draw | 3.8% |
| Levante by 1 | 1.1% |
| Levante by 2 | 0.3% |
| Levante by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 20 (2 pen) | 4 | 3.53 | +0.47 |
 Levante | 11 | 1 | 0.72 | +0.28 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 49' | Marc Bartra Aregall scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 55' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 60' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 65' | Víctor Casadesús Castaño scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 75' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 89' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.13 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27' | Nabil Ghilas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% BAR |
| 2 | 27' | Munir El Haddadi Mohamed didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +6% LEV |
| 3 | 29' | Marc Bartra Aregall didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% LEV |
| 4 | 35' | Sandro Ramírez Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% LEV |
| 5 | 49' | Marc Bartra Aregall scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +23% BAR |
| 6 | 52' | Víctor Camarasa Ferrando didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% BAR |
| 7 | 55' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +3% LEV |
| 8 | 55' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +10% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 98% · draw 2% · Levante 0%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 2.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 95% · draw 4% · Levante 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 97% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–0 Málaga Sep 18, 2015 · replay 67% for Getafe
- Eibar 0–2 Atlético Sep 19, 2015 · replay 81% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 2–3 Espanyol Sep 19, 2015 · replay 55% for Espanyol
- Valencia 0–0 Betis Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Real Madrid 1–0 Granada Sep 19, 2015 · replay 77% for Real Madrid
- Villarreal 3–1 Athletic Sep 20, 2015 · replay 72% for Villarreal
- Las Palmas 0–1 Rayo Sep 20, 2015 · replay 69% for Rayo
- Deportivo 2–3 Sporting Sep 20, 2015 · replay 54% for Sporting
- Sevilla 1–2 Celta Sep 20, 2015 · replay 55% for Celta