Matchday 4 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 19, 2015
Real Sociedad 2–3 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Espanyol beat Real Sociedad 3–2, and the replays lean Espanyol’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Real Sociedad, 2 end level. Espanyol made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 2 | 1.51 |
 Espanyol | 3 | 1.85 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Espanyol lucky · −45 Real Sociedad
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 3, 2 end level, Espanyol win 5.
- 1 RSO 1 ESP 0
- 2 RSO 3 ESP 2
- 3 RSO 3 ESP 0
- 4 RSO 0 ESP 0
- 5 RSO 0 ESP 0
- 6 RSO 0 ESP 3
- 7 RSO 1 ESP 3
- 8 RSO 1 ESP 3
- 9 RSO 0 ESP 1
- 10 RSO 1 ESP 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 34%, 22% end level, Espanyol win 44%. The line is what actually happened: Espanyol by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 5.9% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 9.4% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 18.3% |
| Draw | 22.3% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 19.4% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 14.0% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 10.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 10 | 2 | 1.51 | +0.49 |
 Espanyol | 18 (1 pen) | 3 | 1.85 | +1.15 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 19' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shot | 0.70 |
| 43' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 70' | Enzo Pablo Roco Roco scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 74' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 86' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 89' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +7% ESP |
| 2 | 19' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shotFinishing · 70% chance | +7% RSO |
| 3 | 43' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% ESP |
| 4 | 47' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +8% ESP |
| 5 | 70' | Enzo Pablo Roco Roco scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +38% ESP |
| 6 | 84' | Aritz Elustondo Irribaria didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% ESP |
| 7 | 86' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +44% RSO |
| 8 | 89' | The game turned hereHernán Arsenio Pérez González scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +46% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 28% · draw 27% · Espanyol 45%
- Final margin
- Espanyol by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Espanyol
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Espanyol by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 34% · draw 22% · Espanyol 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Espanyol win 55% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–0 Málaga Sep 18, 2015 · replay 67% for Getafe
- Eibar 0–2 Atlético Sep 19, 2015 · replay 81% for Atlético
- Valencia 0–0 Betis Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Real Madrid 1–0 Granada Sep 19, 2015 · replay 77% for Real Madrid
- Villarreal 3–1 Athletic Sep 20, 2015 · replay 72% for Villarreal
- Las Palmas 0–1 Rayo Sep 20, 2015 · replay 69% for Rayo
- Deportivo 2–3 Sporting Sep 20, 2015 · replay 54% for Sporting
- Sevilla 1–2 Celta Sep 20, 2015 · replay 55% for Celta
- Barcelona 4–1 Levante Sep 20, 2015 · replay 97% for Barcelona