Matchday 4 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 20, 2015
Villarreal 3–1 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Athletic 3–1, and the replays lean Villarreal’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Athletic, 2 end level. Villarreal made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 3 | 1.55 |
 Athletic Club | 1 | 0.98 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Villarreal lucky · −28 Athletic
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 6, 2 end level, Athletic win 2.
- 1 VIL 2 ATH 1
- 2 VIL 3 ATH 2
- 3 VIL 1 ATH 0
- 4 VIL 4 ATH 2
- 5 VIL 3 ATH 0
- 6 VIL 5 ATH 1
- 7 VIL 1 ATH 1
- 8 VIL 2 ATH 2
- 9 VIL 2 ATH 4
- 10 VIL 0 ATH 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 61%, 22% end level, Athletic win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 17.8% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 18.6% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 24.6% |
| Draw | 21.9% |
| Athletic by 1 | 11.8% |
| Athletic by 2 | 4.0% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 14 (1 pen) | 3 | 1.55 | +1.45 |
 Athletic | 10 | 1 | 0.98 | +0.02 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 42' | Bruno Soriano Llido scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 53' | Mikel San José Domínguez didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 66' | Mario Gaspar Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 79' | Leonardo Carrilho Baptistão scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 91' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shot | 0.23 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26' | Enrique Sola Clemente didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% VIL |
| 2 | 38' | Tomás Pina Isla didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% ATH |
| 3 | 39' | Eric Bertrand Bailly didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% ATH |
| 4 | 42' | Bruno Soriano Llido scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% VIL |
| 5 | 43' | Matías Nahuel Leiva Esquivel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +1% ATH |
| 6 | 47' | Javier Eraso Goñi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% VIL |
| 7 | 53' | Mikel San José Domínguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +14% VIL |
| 8 | 66' | Mario Gaspar Pérez Martínez scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +9% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 79% · draw 15% · Athletic 6%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 61% · draw 22% · Athletic 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–0 Málaga Sep 18, 2015 · replay 67% for Getafe
- Eibar 0–2 Atlético Sep 19, 2015 · replay 81% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 2–3 Espanyol Sep 19, 2015 · replay 55% for Espanyol
- Valencia 0–0 Betis Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Real Madrid 1–0 Granada Sep 19, 2015 · replay 77% for Real Madrid
- Las Palmas 0–1 Rayo Sep 20, 2015 · replay 69% for Rayo
- Deportivo 2–3 Sporting Sep 20, 2015 · replay 54% for Sporting
- Sevilla 1–2 Celta Sep 20, 2015 · replay 55% for Celta
- Barcelona 4–1 Levante Sep 20, 2015 · replay 97% for Barcelona