Matchday 4 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 19, 2015
Valencia 0–0 Betis: who deserved to win?
Valencia and Betis drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Valencia win 8 of 10, Betis 0, and 2 end level. Valencia made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 0 | 1.68 |
 Real Betis | 0 | 0.15 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −37 Valencia unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 8, 2 end level, Betis win 0.
- 1 VAL 1 BET 0
- 2 VAL 1 BET 0
- 3 VAL 1 BET 0
- 4 VAL 2 BET 0
- 5 VAL 2 BET 0
- 6 VAL 3 BET 1
- 7 VAL 3 BET 0
- 8 VAL 4 BET 0
- 9 VAL 0 BET 0
- 10 VAL 1 BET 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 77%, 19% end level, Betis win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 21.9% |
| Valencia by 2 | 23.7% |
| Valencia by 1 | 31.5% |
| Draw | 19.4% |
| Betis by 1 | 3.0% |
| Betis by 2 | 0.4% |
| Betis by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 24 | 0 | 1.68 | −1.68 |
 Betis | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | −0.15 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +7% BET |
| 2 | 30' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% BET |
| 3 | 70' | Shkodran Mustafi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% BET |
| 4 | 79' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +8% BET |
| 5 | 88' | Santiago Mina Lorenzo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +5% BET |
| 6 | 88' | Shkodran Mustafi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% BET |
| 7 | 90' | Javier Fuego Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% BET |
| 8 | 90' | Aymen Abdennour didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 78% · draw 18% · Betis 3%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Valencia by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 77% · draw 19% · Betis 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–0 Málaga Sep 18, 2015 · replay 67% for Getafe
- Eibar 0–2 Atlético Sep 19, 2015 · replay 81% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 2–3 Espanyol Sep 19, 2015 · replay 55% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 1–0 Granada Sep 19, 2015 · replay 77% for Real Madrid
- Villarreal 3–1 Athletic Sep 20, 2015 · replay 72% for Villarreal
- Las Palmas 0–1 Rayo Sep 20, 2015 · replay 69% for Rayo
- Deportivo 2–3 Sporting Sep 20, 2015 · replay 54% for Sporting
- Sevilla 1–2 Celta Sep 20, 2015 · replay 55% for Celta
- Barcelona 4–1 Levante Sep 20, 2015 · replay 97% for Barcelona