Matchday 8 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 17, 2015
Betis 1–3 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Espanyol beat Betis 3–1, and the replays lean Espanyol’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Betis, 2 end level. Betis made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 | 1.88 |
 Espanyol | 3 | 1.41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Espanyol lucky · −39 Betis
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 3, 2 end level, Espanyol win 5.
- 1 BET 2 ESP 1
- 2 BET 2 ESP 1
- 3 BET 3 ESP 0
- 4 BET 2 ESP 2
- 5 BET 1 ESP 1
- 6 BET 0 ESP 3
- 7 BET 1 ESP 3
- 8 BET 1 ESP 3
- 9 BET 0 ESP 1
- 10 BET 0 ESP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 28%, 23% end level, Espanyol win 49%. The line is what actually happened: Espanyol by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 4.5% |
| Betis by 2 | 7.7% |
| Betis by 1 | 15.3% |
| Draw | 23.2% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 21.0% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 15.2% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 13.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 21 | 1 | 1.88 | −0.88 |
 Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 1.41 | +1.59 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Enzo Pablo Roco Roco scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 50' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 54' | Víctor Sánchez Mata scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 75' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 88' | Vincenzo Renato Rennella scored from a shot | 0.45 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | The game turned hereEnzo Pablo Roco Roco scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +23% ESP |
| 2 | 5' | Álvaro González Soberón didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% BET |
| 3 | 9' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% ESP |
| 4 | 16' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +3% BET |
| 5 | 29' | Francisco Portillo Soler didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% ESP |
| 6 | 43' | Petros Matheus dos Santos Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ESP |
| 7 | 50' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +11% ESP |
| 8 | 54' | Víctor Sánchez Mata scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 26% · draw 23% · Espanyol 51%
- Final margin
- Espanyol by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.9 for Espanyol
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Espanyol by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 28% · draw 23% · Espanyol 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Espanyol win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Valencia 3–0 Málaga Oct 17, 2015 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Barcelona 5–2 Rayo Oct 17, 2015 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Real Madrid 3–0 Levante Oct 17, 2015 · replay 67% for Real Madrid
- Eibar 1–1 Sevilla Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Getafe 4–0 Las Palmas Oct 18, 2015 · replay 96% for Getafe
- Real Sociedad 0–2 Atlético Oct 18, 2015 · replay 79% for Atlético
- Deportivo 2–2 Athletic Oct 18, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Villarreal 1–2 Celta Oct 18, 2015 · replay 71% for Celta
- Sporting 3–3 Granada Oct 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 19% draws