Matchday 8 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 19, 2015
Sporting 3–3 Granada: who deserved to win?
Sporting and Granada drew 3–3. Replayed with the way both teams played, Sporting win 1 of 10, Granada 7, and 2 end level. Granada made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 3 | 0.89 |
 Granada | 3 | 1.98 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Sporting lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 1, 2 end level, Granada win 7.
- 1 SPO 2 GRA 1
- 2 SPO 1 GRA 1
- 3 SPO 0 GRA 0
- 4 SPO 0 GRA 4
- 5 SPO 0 GRA 3
- 6 SPO 2 GRA 4
- 7 SPO 1 GRA 3
- 8 SPO 1 GRA 3
- 9 SPO 0 GRA 1
- 10 SPO 1 GRA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 11%, 19% end level, Granada win 69%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 0.7% |
| Sporting by 2 | 2.8% |
| Sporting by 1 | 7.8% |
| Draw | 19.2% |
| Granada by 1 | 23.0% |
| Granada by 2 | 20.9% |
| Granada by 3+ | 25.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 15 | 3 | 0.89 | +2.11 |
 Granada | 14 | 3 | 1.98 | +1.02 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Bernardo José Espinosa Zúñiga scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 20' | Francisco Medina Luna scored from a shot | 0.63 |
| 40' | Isaac Ajayi Success scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 72' | Isaac Ajayi Success didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 73' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 80' | Rubén Salvador Pérez Del Mármol didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
| 87' | Ignacio Cases Mora scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 95' | Miguel Ángel Guerrero Martín scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Bernardo José Espinosa Zúñiga scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +20% SPO |
| 2 | 20' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chanceFrancisco Medina Luna scored from a shotFinishing · 63% chance | +5% GRA |
| 3 | 40' | Isaac Ajayi Success scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +30% GRA |
| 4 | 53' | Bernardo José Espinosa Zúñiga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% GRA |
| 5 | 72' | Isaac Ajayi Success didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +3% SPO |
| 6 | 73' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +10% GRA |
| 7 | 95' | Ignacio Cases Mora didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% GRA |
| 8 | 95' | Miguel Ángel Guerrero Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +47% SPO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 12% · draw 21% · Granada 67%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Sporting
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Granada by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 11% · draw 19% · Granada 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 8 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Granada
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