Matchday 8 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 17, 2015
Eibar 1–1 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Eibar and Sevilla drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Eibar win 2 of 10, Sevilla 6, and 2 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 1 | 0.72 |
 Sevilla | 1 | 1.79 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Eibar about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eibar win 2, 2 end level, Sevilla win 6.
- 1 EIB 1 SEV 0
- 2 EIB 4 SEV 2
- 3 EIB 1 SEV 1
- 4 EIB 0 SEV 0
- 5 EIB 0 SEV 4
- 6 EIB 0 SEV 3
- 7 EIB 1 SEV 3
- 8 EIB 1 SEV 2
- 9 EIB 0 SEV 1
- 10 EIB 0 SEV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Eibar win 20%, 24% end level, Sevilla win 55%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eibar by 3+ | 2.0% |
| Eibar by 2 | 4.6% |
| Eibar by 1 | 13.8% |
| Draw | 24.4% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 25.4% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 16.4% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 13.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 14 | 1 | 0.72 | +0.28 |
 Sevilla | 15 | 1 | 1.79 | −0.79 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 70' | Kevin Gameiro scored from a shot | 0.75 |
| 72' | Víctor Machín Pérez didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
When it happened
Eibar’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +21% EIB |
| 2 | 34' | José Antonio Reyes Calderón didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% EIB |
| 3 | 54' | Jorge Andújar Moreno didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% EIB |
| 4 | 70' | Kevin Gameiro scored from a shotFinishing · 75% chance | +10% SEV |
| 5 | 72' | Víctor Machín Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +12% EIB |
| 6 | 76' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% EIB |
| 7 | 76' | Adil Rami didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% EIB |
| 8 | 89' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% SEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eibar 11% · draw 22% · Sevilla 68%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Eibar
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Eibar 20% · draw 24% · Sevilla 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 8 matches, 2015-16 · Eibar · Sevilla
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