Matchday 8 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 18, 2015
Real Sociedad 0–2 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Real Sociedad 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 0 | 0.64 |
 Atlético Madrid | 2 | 1.58 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Atlético about even · −21 Real Sociedad
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 1, 2 end level, Atlético win 7.
- 1 RSO 1 ATM 0
- 2 RSO 0 ATM 0
- 3 RSO 0 ATM 0
- 4 RSO 0 ATM 4
- 5 RSO 0 ATM 3
- 6 RSO 0 ATM 2
- 7 RSO 0 ATM 2
- 8 RSO 0 ATM 1
- 9 RSO 0 ATM 1
- 10 RSO 0 ATM 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 11%, 20% end level, Atlético win 69%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 2.1% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 8.8% |
| Draw | 20.1% |
| Atlético by 1 | 27.2% |
| Atlético by 2 | 20.7% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 20.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 11 | 0 | 0.64 | −0.64 |
 Atlético | 7 | 2 | 1.58 | +0.42 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.39 |
| 90' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco scored from a shot | 0.81 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% RSO |
| 2 | 8' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +16% ATM |
| 3 | 9' | David Zurutuza Veillet didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% ATM |
| 4 | 24' | Sergio Canales Madrazo didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +1% ATM |
| 5 | 31' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% ATM |
| 6 | 79' | Íñigo Martínez Berridi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% ATM |
| 7 | 85' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ATM |
| 8 | 90' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +2% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 3% · draw 9% · Atlético 88%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 11% · draw 20% · Atlético 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Valencia 3–0 Málaga Oct 17, 2015 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Betis 1–3 Espanyol Oct 17, 2015 · replay 61% for Espanyol
- Barcelona 5–2 Rayo Oct 17, 2015 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Real Madrid 3–0 Levante Oct 17, 2015 · replay 67% for Real Madrid
- Eibar 1–1 Sevilla Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Getafe 4–0 Las Palmas Oct 18, 2015 · replay 96% for Getafe
- Deportivo 2–2 Athletic Oct 18, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Villarreal 1–2 Celta Oct 18, 2015 · replay 71% for Celta
- Sporting 3–3 Granada Oct 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 19% draws