Matchday 8 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 17, 2015
Valencia 3–0 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Valencia beat Málaga 3–0, and the replays lean Valencia’s way: 7 wins in 10, 1 for Málaga, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.6 expected goals to 1.6). An own goal helped Valencia.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Valencia lucky · −26 Málaga
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 7, 2 end level, Málaga win 1.
- 1 VAL 3 MAL 2
- 2 VAL 1 MAL 0
- 3 VAL 3 MAL 1
- 4 VAL 4 MAL 2
- 5 VAL 6 MAL 3
- 6 VAL 3 MAL 0
- 7 VAL 4 MAL 0
- 8 VAL 2 MAL 2
- 9 VAL 4 MAL 4
- 10 VAL 0 MAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 65%, 17% end level, Málaga win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Valencia by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 25.3% |
| Valencia by 2 | 17.9% |
| Valencia by 1 | 22.2% |
| Draw | 17.3% |
| Málaga by 1 | 10.9% |
| Málaga by 2 | 4.6% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 1.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 7 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.60 | +0.40 |
 Málaga | 10 (1 pen) | 0 | 1.62 | −1.62 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 32' | André Filipe Tavares Gomes scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 38' | Sérgio Paulo Barbosa Valente didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 58' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
| 87' | Daniel Parejo Muñoz scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% VAL |
| 2 | 18' | Own goal by nan, for ValenciaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +23% VAL |
| 3 | 32' | André Filipe Tavares Gomes scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +11% VAL |
| 4 | 38' | Sérgio Paulo Barbosa Valente didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +9% VAL |
| 5 | 38' | Ignacio Camacho Barnola didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +2% VAL |
| 6 | 52' | Pablo Fornals Malla didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% VAL |
| 7 | 58' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +1% MAL |
| 8 | 65' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +2% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 65% · draw 22% · Málaga 14%
- Final margin
- Valencia by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.5 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Valencia by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 65% · draw 17% · Málaga 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Valencia win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Betis 1–3 Espanyol Oct 17, 2015 · replay 61% for Espanyol
- Barcelona 5–2 Rayo Oct 17, 2015 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Real Madrid 3–0 Levante Oct 17, 2015 · replay 67% for Real Madrid
- Eibar 1–1 Sevilla Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Getafe 4–0 Las Palmas Oct 18, 2015 · replay 96% for Getafe
- Real Sociedad 0–2 Atlético Oct 18, 2015 · replay 79% for Atlético
- Deportivo 2–2 Athletic Oct 18, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Villarreal 1–2 Celta Oct 18, 2015 · replay 71% for Celta
- Sporting 3–3 Granada Oct 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 19% draws