Matchday 8 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 18, 2015
Deportivo 2–2 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Deportivo and Athletic drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Deportivo win 5 of 10, Athletic 2, and 3 end level. Deportivo made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 2 | 1.32 |
 Athletic Club | 2 | 0.61 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −12 Deportivo about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 5, 3 end level, Athletic win 2.
- 1 DEP 1 ATH 0
- 2 DEP 1 ATH 0
- 3 DEP 3 ATH 2
- 4 DEP 2 ATH 0
- 5 DEP 4 ATH 1
- 6 DEP 1 ATH 1
- 7 DEP 0 ATH 0
- 8 DEP 0 ATH 0
- 9 DEP 0 ATH 2
- 10 DEP 0 ATH 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 46%, 31% end level, Athletic win 23%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 6.4% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 12.8% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 27.1% |
| Draw | 31.1% |
| Athletic by 1 | 16.0% |
| Athletic by 2 | 5.5% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 17 | 2 | 1.32 | +0.68 |
 Athletic | 7 | 2 | 0.61 | +1.39 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 29' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 35' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shot | 0.44 |
| 62' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 79' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 88' | Alejandro Arribas Garrido scored from a shot | 0.15 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
As low as 1% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Xabier Etxeita Gorritxategi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% DEP |
| 2 | 29' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +25% ATH |
| 3 | 35' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +13% ATH |
| 4 | 62' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +11% ATH |
| 5 | 79' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +7% DEP |
| 6 | 80' | Oriol Riera Magem didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% ATH |
| 7 | 88' | Alejandro Arribas Garrido scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +42% DEP |
| 8 | 92' | Alejandro Arribas Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 56% · draw 28% · Athletic 16%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Deportivo by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 46% · draw 31% · Athletic 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Valencia 3–0 Málaga Oct 17, 2015 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Betis 1–3 Espanyol Oct 17, 2015 · replay 61% for Espanyol
- Barcelona 5–2 Rayo Oct 17, 2015 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Real Madrid 3–0 Levante Oct 17, 2015 · replay 67% for Real Madrid
- Eibar 1–1 Sevilla Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Getafe 4–0 Las Palmas Oct 18, 2015 · replay 96% for Getafe
- Real Sociedad 0–2 Atlético Oct 18, 2015 · replay 79% for Atlético
- Villarreal 1–2 Celta Oct 18, 2015 · replay 71% for Celta
- Sporting 3–3 Granada Oct 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 19% draws