Matchday 8 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 18, 2015
Getafe 4–0 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Getafe beat Las Palmas 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Getafe win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Getafe made the better chances: 2.8 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 4 | 2.80 |
 Las Palmas | 0 | 0.54 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Getafe about even · −4 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 9, 1 ends level, Las Palmas win 0.
- 1 GET 1 LPA 0
- 2 GET 3 LPA 1
- 3 GET 2 LPA 0
- 4 GET 3 LPA 0
- 5 GET 3 LPA 0
- 6 GET 4 LPA 0
- 7 GET 5 LPA 0
- 8 GET 6 LPA 1
- 9 GET 7 LPA 0
- 10 GET 1 LPA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 93%, 6% end level, Las Palmas win 2%. The line is what actually happened: Getafe by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 63.7% |
| Getafe by 2 | 17.3% |
| Getafe by 1 | 11.7% |
| Draw | 5.7% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 1.2% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 0.3% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 14 | 4 | 2.80 | +1.20 |
 Las Palmas | 16 | 0 | 0.54 | −0.54 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Víctor Rodríguez Romero scored from a shot | 0.76 |
| 10' | Pablo Sarabia García scored from a shot | 0.50 |
| 34' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 85' | Stefan Šćepović scored from a shot | 0.47 |
| 92' | Stefan Šćepović scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Víctor Rodríguez Romero scored from a shotFinishing · 76% chance | +5% GET |
| 2 | 10' | Pablo Sarabia García scored from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +6% GET |
| 3 | 15' | Nauzet Alemán Viera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% GET |
| 4 | 29' | Víctor Rodríguez Romero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +1% LPA |
| 5 | 34' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +1% LPA |
| 6 | 48' | Pedro Bigas Rigo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +0% GET |
| 7 | 52' | Willian José da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% GET |
| 8 | 59' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% GET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 97% · draw 2% · Las Palmas 0%
- Final margin
- Getafe by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Getafe
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Getafe by 2.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 93% · draw 6% · Las Palmas 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Getafe win 96% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 8 matches, 2015-16 · Getafe · Las Palmas
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Valencia 3–0 Málaga Oct 17, 2015 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Betis 1–3 Espanyol Oct 17, 2015 · replay 61% for Espanyol
- Barcelona 5–2 Rayo Oct 17, 2015 · replay 89% for Barcelona
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