Matchday 8 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 18, 2015
Villarreal 1–2 Celta: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Villarreal 2–1, and the replays lean Celta’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Villarreal, 2 end level. Celta made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 1 | 0.95 |
 Celta Vigo | 2 | 1.59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Celta lucky · −29 Villarreal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 2, 2 end level, Celta win 6.
- 1 VIL 2 CEL 1
- 2 VIL 3 CEL 1
- 3 VIL 0 CEL 0
- 4 VIL 0 CEL 0
- 5 VIL 0 CEL 4
- 6 VIL 1 CEL 4
- 7 VIL 1 CEL 3
- 8 VIL 2 CEL 4
- 9 VIL 2 CEL 3
- 10 VIL 0 CEL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 18%, 23% end level, Celta win 60%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 1.7% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 4.0% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 11.9% |
| Draw | 22.9% |
| Celta by 1 | 24.3% |
| Celta by 2 | 18.3% |
| Celta by 3+ | 16.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 12 | 1 | 0.95 | +0.05 |
 Celta | 13 | 2 | 1.59 | +0.41 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Leonardo Carrilho Baptistão didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 40' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 43' | Pedro Pablo Hernández didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 58' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shot | 0.75 |
| 66' | Denis Suárez Fernández scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 89' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Leonardo Carrilho Baptistão didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +8% CEL |
| 2 | 40' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +30% CEL |
| 3 | 43' | Pedro Pablo Hernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +6% VIL |
| 4 | 45' | Matías Nahuel Leiva Esquivel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% CEL |
| 5 | 58' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 75% chance | +11% VIL |
| 6 | 66' | Denis Suárez Fernández scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +38% VIL |
| 7 | 88' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% VIL |
| 8 | 89' | The game turned hereManuel Agudo Durán scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +46% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 19% · draw 25% · Celta 56%
- Final margin
- Celta by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 18% · draw 23% · Celta 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Valencia 3–0 Málaga Oct 17, 2015 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Betis 1–3 Espanyol Oct 17, 2015 · replay 61% for Espanyol
- Barcelona 5–2 Rayo Oct 17, 2015 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Real Madrid 3–0 Levante Oct 17, 2015 · replay 67% for Real Madrid
- Eibar 1–1 Sevilla Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Getafe 4–0 Las Palmas Oct 18, 2015 · replay 96% for Getafe
- Real Sociedad 0–2 Atlético Oct 18, 2015 · replay 79% for Atlético
- Deportivo 2–2 Athletic Oct 18, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Sporting 3–3 Granada Oct 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 19% draws