Matchday 8 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 17, 2015
Barcelona 5–2 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Rayo 5–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 4.7 expected goals to 2.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 5 | 4.68 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 2.47 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Barcelona about even · −11 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 8, 1 ends level, Rayo win 1.
- 1 BAR 4 RAY 3
- 2 BAR 4 RAY 2
- 3 BAR 5 RAY 2
- 4 BAR 3 RAY 0
- 5 BAR 7 RAY 3
- 6 BAR 7 RAY 2
- 7 BAR 6 RAY 0
- 8 BAR 8 RAY 0
- 9 BAR 2 RAY 2
- 10 BAR 5 RAY 6
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 84%, 8% end level, Rayo win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 58.4% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 14.7% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 11.3% |
| Draw | 8.3% |
| Rayo by 1 | 3.9% |
| Rayo by 2 | 2.0% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 14 (2 pen) | 5 | 4.68 | +0.32 |
 Rayo | 22 | 2 | 2.47 | −0.47 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 5' | Ivan Rakitić didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
| 9' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
| 14' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shot | 0.61 |
| 21' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 24' | Sandro Ramírez Castillo didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 31' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 68' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 69' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.92 |
| 76' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 80' | Patrick Ebert didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 85' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Ivan Rakitić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +11% RAY |
| 2 | 9' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +9% RAY |
| 3 | 14' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shotFinishing · 61% chance | +10% RAY |
| 4 | 21' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% BAR |
| 5 | 24' | Sandro Ramírez Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +11% RAY |
| 6 | 49' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +8% BAR |
| 7 | 49' | Patrick Ebert didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% BAR |
| 8 | 68' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 91% · draw 6% · Rayo 3%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 84% · draw 8% · Rayo 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Valencia 3–0 Málaga Oct 17, 2015 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Betis 1–3 Espanyol Oct 17, 2015 · replay 61% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 3–0 Levante Oct 17, 2015 · replay 67% for Real Madrid
- Eibar 1–1 Sevilla Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Getafe 4–0 Las Palmas Oct 18, 2015 · replay 96% for Getafe
- Real Sociedad 0–2 Atlético Oct 18, 2015 · replay 79% for Atlético
- Deportivo 2–2 Athletic Oct 18, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Villarreal 1–2 Celta Oct 18, 2015 · replay 71% for Celta
- Sporting 3–3 Granada Oct 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 19% draws