Matchday 8 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 17, 2015
Real Madrid 3–0 Levante: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Levante 3–0, and the replays lean Real Madrid’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Levante, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.4 expected goals to 1.5).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 3 | 1.45 |
 Levante | 0 | 1.50 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Real Madrid lucky · −33 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 6, 2 end level, Levante win 2.
- 1 RMA 2 LEV 1
- 2 RMA 1 LEV 0
- 3 RMA 2 LEV 1
- 4 RMA 2 LEV 0
- 5 RMA 3 LEV 0
- 6 RMA 4 LEV 0
- 7 RMA 0 LEV 0
- 8 RMA 2 LEV 2
- 9 RMA 0 LEV 2
- 10 RMA 2 LEV 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Madrid win 56%, 22% end level, Levante win 22%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 16.6% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 17.0% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 22.9% |
| Draw | 21.8% |
| Levante by 1 | 13.7% |
| Levante by 2 | 5.5% |
| Levante by 3+ | 2.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 21 | 3 | 1.45 | +1.55 |
 Levante | 17 | 0 | 1.50 | −1.50 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 26' | Marcelo Vieira da Silva Júnior scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 29' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 81' | Jesé Rodríguez Ruiz scored from a shot | 0.22 |
When it happened
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Roger Martí Salvador didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% RMA |
| 2 | 22' | Gareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% LEV |
| 3 | 25' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% RMA |
| 4 | 26' | Marcelo Vieira da Silva Júnior scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +22% RMA |
| 5 | 28' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% RMA |
| 6 | 29' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +12% RMA |
| 7 | 65' | Nabil Ghilas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +3% RMA |
| 8 | 70' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +2% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Madrid 61% · draw 22% · Levante 18%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.3 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Madrid 56% · draw 22% · Levante 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 67% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Valencia 3–0 Málaga Oct 17, 2015 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Betis 1–3 Espanyol Oct 17, 2015 · replay 61% for Espanyol
- Barcelona 5–2 Rayo Oct 17, 2015 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Eibar 1–1 Sevilla Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Getafe 4–0 Las Palmas Oct 18, 2015 · replay 96% for Getafe
- Real Sociedad 0–2 Atlético Oct 18, 2015 · replay 79% for Atlético
- Deportivo 2–2 Athletic Oct 18, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Villarreal 1–2 Celta Oct 18, 2015 · replay 71% for Celta
- Sporting 3–3 Granada Oct 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 19% draws