Matchday 12 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 21, 2015
Deportivo 2–0 Celta: who deserved to win?
Deportivo beat Celta 2–0, and the replays lean Deportivo’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Celta, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 1.1). An own goal helped Deportivo.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 2 | 1.08 |
 Celta Vigo | 0 | 1.14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Deportivo lucky · −44 Celta
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 4, 3 end level, Celta win 3.
- 1 DEP 1 CEL 0
- 2 DEP 1 CEL 0
- 3 DEP 2 CEL 0
- 4 DEP 6 CEL 3
- 5 DEP 1 CEL 1
- 6 DEP 1 CEL 1
- 7 DEP 0 CEL 0
- 8 DEP 0 CEL 2
- 9 DEP 0 CEL 1
- 10 DEP 1 CEL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 41%, 30% end level, Celta win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Deportivo by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 5.0% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 12.5% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 23.2% |
| Draw | 30.0% |
| Celta by 1 | 18.6% |
| Celta by 2 | 7.8% |
| Celta by 3+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 5 | 1 | 1.08 | −0.08 |
 Celta | 7 (1 pen) | 0 | 1.14 | −1.14 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 22' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.75 |
| 25' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% DEP |
| 2 | 18' | Pedro Pablo Hernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% DEP |
| 3 | 22' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shotFinishing · 75% chance | +6% DEP |
| 4 | 25' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +20% DEP |
| 5 | 32' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% DEP |
| 6 | 54' | Jonathan Javier Rodríguez Portillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +2% CEL |
| 7 | 84' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% DEP |
| 8 | 86' | Hugo Mallo Novegil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 28% · draw 40% · Celta 31%
- Final margin
- Deportivo by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Deportivo by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 41% · draw 30% · Celta 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Deportivo win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Sevilla Nov 21, 2015 · replay 52% for Real Sociedad
- Valencia 1–1 Las Palmas Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Espanyol 2–0 Málaga Nov 21, 2015 · replay 58% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 0–4 Barcelona Nov 21, 2015 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Sporting 0–3 Levante Nov 22, 2015 · replay 72% for Levante
- Betis 0–1 Atlético Nov 22, 2015 · replay 90% for Atlético
- Granada 2–0 Athletic Nov 22, 2015 · replay 45% for Granada
- Villarreal 1–1 Eibar Nov 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 15% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Rayo Nov 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws