Matchday 12 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 21, 2015
Real Sociedad 2–0 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Real Sociedad beat Sevilla 2–0, but the replays call it even: Real Sociedad win 4 of 10, Sevilla 3, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.0 expected goals to 1.1).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 2 | 1.00 |
 Sevilla | 0 | 1.10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 Real Sociedad lucky · −48 Sevilla
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 4, 3 end level, Sevilla win 3.
- 1 RSO 1 SEV 0
- 2 RSO 1 SEV 0
- 3 RSO 3 SEV 1
- 4 RSO 4 SEV 1
- 5 RSO 2 SEV 2
- 6 RSO 1 SEV 1
- 7 RSO 0 SEV 0
- 8 RSO 0 SEV 2
- 9 RSO 0 SEV 1
- 10 RSO 1 SEV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 38%, 28% end level, Sevilla win 33%. The line is what actually happened: Real Sociedad by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 5.4% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 10.5% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 22.4% |
| Draw | 28.3% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 21.2% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 8.6% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 3.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 14 | 2 | 1.00 | +1.00 |
 Sevilla | 13 | 0 | 1.10 | −1.10 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 72' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 76' | Xabier Prieto Argarate scored from a shot | 0.36 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46' | Ciro Immobile didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +7% RSO |
| 2 | 54' | Xabier Prieto Argarate didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% SEV |
| 3 | 55' | Víctor Machín Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% RSO |
| 4 | 60' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +10% RSO |
| 5 | 65' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% RSO |
| 6 | 72' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +35% RSO |
| 7 | 75' | Steven N''Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% RSO |
| 8 | 76' | Xabier Prieto Argarate scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +4% RSO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 63% · draw 21% · Sevilla 16%
- Final margin
- Real Sociedad by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Real Sociedad
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Sociedad by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 38% · draw 28% · Sevilla 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Sociedad win 52% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Deportivo 2–0 Celta Nov 21, 2015 · replay 56% for Deportivo
- Valencia 1–1 Las Palmas Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Espanyol 2–0 Málaga Nov 21, 2015 · replay 58% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 0–4 Barcelona Nov 21, 2015 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Sporting 0–3 Levante Nov 22, 2015 · replay 72% for Levante
- Betis 0–1 Atlético Nov 22, 2015 · replay 90% for Atlético
- Granada 2–0 Athletic Nov 22, 2015 · replay 45% for Granada
- Villarreal 1–1 Eibar Nov 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 15% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Rayo Nov 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws