Matchday 12 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 22, 2015
Betis 0–1 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Betis 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 0 | 0.29 |
 Atlético Madrid | 1 | 2.06 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Atlético about even · −10 Betis
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 0, 1 ends level, Atlético win 9.
- 1 BET 2 ATM 2
- 2 BET 0 ATM 5
- 3 BET 0 ATM 4
- 4 BET 0 ATM 3
- 5 BET 0 ATM 3
- 6 BET 0 ATM 2
- 7 BET 1 ATM 3
- 8 BET 0 ATM 1
- 9 BET 0 ATM 1
- 10 BET 0 ATM 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 3%, 13% end level, Atlético win 84%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Betis by 2 | 0.4% |
| Betis by 1 | 2.6% |
| Draw | 13.4% |
| Atlético by 1 | 23.2% |
| Atlético by 2 | 23.7% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 36.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 7 | 0 | 0.29 | −0.29 |
 Atlético | 11 | 1 | 2.06 | −1.06 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio scored from a shot | 0.57 |
| 87' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Alfred John Momar N''Diaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% ATM |
| 2 | 6' | Fernando José Torres Sanz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% BET |
| 3 | 6' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio scored from a shotFinishing · 57% chance | +11% ATM |
| 4 | 22' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +3% BET |
| 5 | 43' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +5% BET |
| 6 | 66' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% BET |
| 7 | 72' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +3% BET |
| 8 | 79' | Bruno González Cabrera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 4% · draw 12% · Atlético 84%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 3% · draw 13% · Atlético 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 90% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Sevilla Nov 21, 2015 · replay 52% for Real Sociedad
- Deportivo 2–0 Celta Nov 21, 2015 · replay 56% for Deportivo
- Valencia 1–1 Las Palmas Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Espanyol 2–0 Málaga Nov 21, 2015 · replay 58% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 0–4 Barcelona Nov 21, 2015 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Sporting 0–3 Levante Nov 22, 2015 · replay 72% for Levante
- Granada 2–0 Athletic Nov 22, 2015 · replay 45% for Granada
- Villarreal 1–1 Eibar Nov 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 15% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Rayo Nov 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws