Matchday 12 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 22, 2015
Sporting 0–3 Levante: who deserved to win?
Levante beat Sporting 3–0, and the replays lean Levante’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Sporting, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (2.4 expected goals to 2.3).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 0 | 2.40 |
 Levante | 3 | 2.30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Levante lucky · −28 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 2, 2 end level, Levante win 6.
- 1 SPO 2 LEV 1
- 2 SPO 2 LEV 0
- 3 SPO 2 LEV 2
- 4 SPO 2 LEV 2
- 5 SPO 0 LEV 5
- 6 SPO 0 LEV 4
- 7 SPO 4 LEV 7
- 8 SPO 0 LEV 2
- 9 SPO 1 LEV 2
- 10 SPO 3 LEV 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 20%, 16% end level, Levante win 64%. The line is what actually happened: Levante by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 3.9% |
| Sporting by 2 | 5.0% |
| Sporting by 1 | 10.9% |
| Draw | 16.1% |
| Levante by 1 | 19.6% |
| Levante by 2 | 16.7% |
| Levante by 3+ | 27.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 14 (1 pen) | 0 | 2.40 | −2.40 |
 Levante | 13 | 3 | 2.30 | +0.70 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 17' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 26' | Zouhair Feddal scored from a shot | 0.94 |
| 43' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shot | 0.60 |
| 62' | Jonathan Rodríguez Menéndez didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 62' | Carlos Castro García didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 69' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% SPO |
| 2 | 17' | David Navarro Pedrós didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SPO |
| 3 | 17' | Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% SPO |
| 4 | 17' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +19% LEV |
| 5 | 26' | José Luis Morales Nogales didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +1% SPO |
| 6 | 35' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +4% LEV |
| 7 | 43' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shotFinishing · 60% chance | +2% LEV |
| 8 | 62' | Jonathan Rodríguez Menéndez didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +2% LEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 19% · draw 22% · Levante 59%
- Final margin
- Levante by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.3 for Levante
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Levante by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 20% · draw 16% · Levante 64% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Levante win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 12 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Levante
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Sevilla Nov 21, 2015 · replay 52% for Real Sociedad
- Deportivo 2–0 Celta Nov 21, 2015 · replay 56% for Deportivo
- Valencia 1–1 Las Palmas Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Espanyol 2–0 Málaga Nov 21, 2015 · replay 58% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 0–4 Barcelona Nov 21, 2015 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Betis 0–1 Atlético Nov 22, 2015 · replay 90% for Atlético
- Granada 2–0 Athletic Nov 22, 2015 · replay 45% for Granada
- Villarreal 1–1 Eibar Nov 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 15% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Rayo Nov 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws