Matchday 12 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 22, 2015
Granada 2–0 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Granada beat Athletic 2–0, but the replays call it even: Granada win 3 of 10, Athletic 4, 3 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.6. An own goal helped Granada.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Granada | 2 | 0.61 |
 Athletic Club | 0 | 1.17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Granada lucky · −55 Athletic
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Granada win 3, 3 end level, Athletic win 4.
- 1 GRA 2 ATH 1
- 2 GRA 1 ATH 0
- 3 GRA 3 ATH 1
- 4 GRA 2 ATH 2
- 5 GRA 1 ATH 1
- 6 GRA 0 ATH 0
- 7 GRA 0 ATH 2
- 8 GRA 0 ATH 1
- 9 GRA 0 ATH 1
- 10 GRA 1 ATH 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Granada win 28%, 33% end level, Athletic win 38%. The line is what actually happened: Granada by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Granada by 3+ | 2.6% |
| Granada by 2 | 6.2% |
| Granada by 1 | 19.6% |
| Draw | 33.4% |
| Athletic by 1 | 23.3% |
| Athletic by 2 | 10.8% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 4.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Granada | 8 | 1 | 0.61 | +0.39 |
 Athletic | 12 | 0 | 1.17 | −1.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 46' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 58' | Isaac Ajayi Success scored from a shot | 0.22 |
When it happened
Granada’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Own goal by nan, for GranadaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +21% GRA |
| 2 | 46' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +12% GRA |
| 3 | 48' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +8% GRA |
| 4 | 52' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% GRA |
| 5 | 52' | Mikel San José Domínguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% GRA |
| 6 | 52' | Beñat Etxebarria Urkiaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% GRA |
| 7 | 55' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% GRA |
| 8 | 58' | Isaac Ajayi Success scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +8% GRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Granada 20% · draw 30% · Athletic 50%
- Final margin
- Granada by 2
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Granada 28% · draw 33% · Athletic 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Granada win 45% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 12 matches, 2015-16 · Granada · Athletic
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Sevilla Nov 21, 2015 · replay 52% for Real Sociedad
- Deportivo 2–0 Celta Nov 21, 2015 · replay 56% for Deportivo
- Valencia 1–1 Las Palmas Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Espanyol 2–0 Málaga Nov 21, 2015 · replay 58% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 0–4 Barcelona Nov 21, 2015 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Sporting 0–3 Levante Nov 22, 2015 · replay 72% for Levante
- Betis 0–1 Atlético Nov 22, 2015 · replay 90% for Atlético
- Villarreal 1–1 Eibar Nov 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 15% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Rayo Nov 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws