Matchday 12 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 22, 2015
Villarreal 1–1 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Villarreal and Eibar drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Villarreal win 2 of 10, Eibar 6, and 2 end level. Eibar made the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 1 | 1.72 |
 Eibar | 1 | 2.66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Villarreal lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 2, 2 end level, Eibar win 6.
- 1 VIL 2 EIB 1
- 2 VIL 3 EIB 1
- 3 VIL 2 EIB 2
- 4 VIL 0 EIB 0
- 5 VIL 0 EIB 5
- 6 VIL 1 EIB 4
- 7 VIL 1 EIB 3
- 8 VIL 2 EIB 4
- 9 VIL 2 EIB 3
- 10 VIL 1 EIB 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 17%, 15% end level, Eibar win 68%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 3.1% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 4.4% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 9.1% |
| Draw | 15.0% |
| Eibar by 1 | 18.2% |
| Eibar by 2 | 18.6% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 31.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 12 | 1 | 1.72 | −0.72 |
 Eibar | 17 (1 pen) | 1 | 2.66 | −1.66 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 17' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shot | 0.56 |
| 26' | Sergio Enrich Ametller scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 37' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 41' | Daniel García Carrillo didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 84' | Jaume Vicent Costa Jordá scored from a shot | 0.22 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
As low as 4% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +10% EIB |
| 2 | 17' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 56% chance | +15% VIL |
| 3 | 26' | Sergio Enrich Ametller scored from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +19% EIB |
| 4 | 37' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +11% EIB |
| 5 | 41' | Daniel García Carrillo didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +13% VIL |
| 6 | 70' | Samuel Castillejo Azuaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% EIB |
| 7 | 84' | Jaume Vicent Costa Jordá scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +37% VIL |
| 8 | 89' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% EIB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 18% · draw 20% · Eibar 61%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 17% · draw 15% · Eibar 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 12 matches, 2015-16 · Villarreal · Eibar
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