Matchday 12 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 21, 2015
Real Madrid 0–4 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Real Madrid 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 0 | 1.34 |
 Barcelona | 4 | 2.48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Barcelona about even · −11 Real Madrid
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 1, 1 ends level, Barcelona win 8.
- 1 RMA 2 BAR 1
- 2 RMA 2 BAR 2
- 3 RMA 0 BAR 6
- 4 RMA 0 BAR 5
- 5 RMA 1 BAR 5
- 6 RMA 1 BAR 4
- 7 RMA 2 BAR 5
- 8 RMA 1 BAR 3
- 9 RMA 0 BAR 1
- 10 RMA 2 BAR 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Madrid win 6%, 10% end level, Barcelona win 84%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 1.2% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 4.0% |
| Draw | 10.3% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 16.7% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 18.6% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 48.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 13 | 0 | 1.34 | −1.34 |
 Barcelona | 18 | 4 | 2.48 | +1.52 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 38' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 46' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 52' | Andrés Iniesta Luján scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 60' | Raphaël Varane didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 67' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 73' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.42 |
When it happened
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% RMA |
| 2 | 10' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +19% BAR |
| 3 | 24' | Sergi Roberto Carnicer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% RMA |
| 4 | 27' | James David Rodríguez Rubio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% BAR |
| 5 | 38' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +15% BAR |
| 6 | 46' | Marcelo Vieira da Silva Júnior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% BAR |
| 7 | 46' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +2% RMA |
| 8 | 52' | Andrés Iniesta Luján scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Madrid 6% · draw 12% · Barcelona 82%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Madrid 6% · draw 10% · Barcelona 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Sevilla Nov 21, 2015 · replay 52% for Real Sociedad
- Deportivo 2–0 Celta Nov 21, 2015 · replay 56% for Deportivo
- Valencia 1–1 Las Palmas Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Espanyol 2–0 Málaga Nov 21, 2015 · replay 58% for Espanyol
- Sporting 0–3 Levante Nov 22, 2015 · replay 72% for Levante
- Betis 0–1 Atlético Nov 22, 2015 · replay 90% for Atlético
- Granada 2–0 Athletic Nov 22, 2015 · replay 45% for Granada
- Villarreal 1–1 Eibar Nov 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 15% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Rayo Nov 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws