Matchday 12 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 23, 2015
Getafe 1–1 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Getafe and Rayo drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Getafe win 2 of 10, Rayo 5, and 3 end level. Rayo made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.7. An own goal helped Getafe.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 1 | 0.66 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 1.72 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Getafe about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 2, 3 end level, Rayo win 5.
- 1 GET 2 RAY 1
- 2 GET 2 RAY 0
- 3 GET 1 RAY 1
- 4 GET 0 RAY 0
- 5 GET 0 RAY 0
- 6 GET 0 RAY 3
- 7 GET 1 RAY 3
- 8 GET 1 RAY 3
- 9 GET 0 RAY 1
- 10 GET 0 RAY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 19%, 26% end level, Rayo win 55%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 1.3% |
| Getafe by 2 | 4.2% |
| Getafe by 1 | 13.4% |
| Draw | 25.9% |
| Rayo by 1 | 26.8% |
| Rayo by 2 | 16.9% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 11.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 15 | 0 | 0.66 | −0.66 |
 Rayo | 8 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.72 | −0.72 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 72' | Roberto Trashorras Gayoso didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 72' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shot | 0.58 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% RAY |
| 2 | 29' | Emiliano Daniel Velázquez Maldonado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% RAY |
| 3 | 53' | Víctor Rodríguez Romero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% RAY |
| 4 | 57' | Own goal by nan, for GetafeOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +31% GET |
| 5 | 70' | Patrick Ebert didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +7% GET |
| 6 | 72' | Roberto Trashorras Gayoso didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +30% GET |
| 7 | 72' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +16% RAY |
| 8 | 84' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% GET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 9% · draw 20% · Rayo 71%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Getafe
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 19% · draw 26% · Rayo 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Sevilla Nov 21, 2015 · replay 52% for Real Sociedad
- Deportivo 2–0 Celta Nov 21, 2015 · replay 56% for Deportivo
- Valencia 1–1 Las Palmas Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Espanyol 2–0 Málaga Nov 21, 2015 · replay 58% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 0–4 Barcelona Nov 21, 2015 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Sporting 0–3 Levante Nov 22, 2015 · replay 72% for Levante
- Betis 0–1 Atlético Nov 22, 2015 · replay 90% for Atlético
- Granada 2–0 Athletic Nov 22, 2015 · replay 45% for Granada
- Villarreal 1–1 Eibar Nov 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 15% draws