Matchday 12 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 21, 2015
Valencia 1–1 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Valencia and Las Palmas drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Valencia win 4 of 10, Las Palmas 4, and 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.5 expected goals to 1.6).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 1 | 1.52 |
 Las Palmas | 1 | 1.63 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −2 Valencia about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 4, 2 end level, Las Palmas win 4.
- 1 VAL 1 LPA 0
- 2 VAL 2 LPA 1
- 3 VAL 2 LPA 0
- 4 VAL 3 LPA 0
- 5 VAL 4 LPA 4
- 6 VAL 0 LPA 0
- 7 VAL 1 LPA 4
- 8 VAL 1 LPA 3
- 9 VAL 2 LPA 3
- 10 VAL 2 LPA 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 41%, 23% end level, Las Palmas win 36%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 8.8% |
| Valencia by 2 | 12.1% |
| Valencia by 1 | 19.9% |
| Draw | 23.1% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 19.3% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 10.3% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 6.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 9 | 1 | 1.52 | −0.52 |
 Las Palmas | 18 | 1 | 1.63 | −0.63 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shot | 0.69 |
| 56' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a shot | 0.24 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shotFinishing · 69% chance | +7% VAL |
| 2 | 48' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% VAL |
| 3 | 56' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +25% LPA |
| 4 | 64' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +6% VAL |
| 5 | 73' | Jerónimo Figueroa Cabrera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +7% VAL |
| 6 | 73' | Jerónimo Figueroa Cabrera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +7% VAL |
| 7 | 76' | Aymen Abdennour didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +9% LPA |
| 8 | 92' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +11% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 34% · draw 26% · Las Palmas 40%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Las Palmas by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 41% · draw 23% · Las Palmas 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 12 matches, 2015-16 · Valencia · Las Palmas
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Sevilla Nov 21, 2015 · replay 52% for Real Sociedad
- Deportivo 2–0 Celta Nov 21, 2015 · replay 56% for Deportivo
- Espanyol 2–0 Málaga Nov 21, 2015 · replay 58% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 0–4 Barcelona Nov 21, 2015 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Sporting 0–3 Levante Nov 22, 2015 · replay 72% for Levante
- Betis 0–1 Atlético Nov 22, 2015 · replay 90% for Atlético
- Granada 2–0 Athletic Nov 22, 2015 · replay 45% for Granada
- Villarreal 1–1 Eibar Nov 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 15% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Rayo Nov 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws