Matchday 12 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 21, 2015
Espanyol 2–0 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Espanyol beat Málaga 2–0, and the replays lean Espanyol’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Málaga, 3 end level. Málaga made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.9.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Espanyol lucky · −42 Málaga
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 4, 3 end level, Málaga win 3.
- 1 ESP 2 MAL 1
- 2 ESP 1 MAL 0
- 3 ESP 2 MAL 0
- 4 ESP 3 MAL 0
- 5 ESP 0 MAL 0
- 6 ESP 1 MAL 1
- 7 ESP 1 MAL 1
- 8 ESP 1 MAL 3
- 9 ESP 1 MAL 2
- 10 ESP 1 MAL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 44%, 28% end level, Málaga win 28%. The line is what actually happened: Espanyol by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 7.4% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 12.4% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 24.0% |
| Draw | 28.1% |
| Málaga by 1 | 17.6% |
| Málaga by 2 | 7.7% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 2.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 0.87 | +1.13 |
 Málaga | 15 | 0 | 1.17 | −1.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 5' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 19' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González scored from a shot | 0.15 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Nordin Amrabat didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% ESP |
| 2 | 2' | Sérgio Paulo Barbosa Valente didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +2% ESP |
| 3 | 3' | Juan Carlos Pérez López didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% ESP |
| 4 | 5' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +20% ESP |
| 5 | 18' | Nordin Amrabat didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% ESP |
| 6 | 19' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +11% ESP |
| 7 | 27' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% ESP |
| 8 | 35' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +2% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 56% · draw 25% · Málaga 19%
- Final margin
- Espanyol by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Espanyol
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Espanyol by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 44% · draw 28% · Málaga 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Espanyol win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Sevilla Nov 21, 2015 · replay 52% for Real Sociedad
- Deportivo 2–0 Celta Nov 21, 2015 · replay 56% for Deportivo
- Valencia 1–1 Las Palmas Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Real Madrid 0–4 Barcelona Nov 21, 2015 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Sporting 0–3 Levante Nov 22, 2015 · replay 72% for Levante
- Betis 0–1 Atlético Nov 22, 2015 · replay 90% for Atlético
- Granada 2–0 Athletic Nov 22, 2015 · replay 45% for Granada
- Villarreal 1–1 Eibar Nov 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 15% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Rayo Nov 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws