Matchday 13 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 28, 2015
Atlético 1–0 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Espanyol 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 1 | 1.85 |
 Espanyol | 0 | 0.21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Atlético about even · −9 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 8, 1 ends level, Espanyol win 1.
- 1 ATM 1 ESP 0
- 2 ATM 1 ESP 0
- 3 ATM 2 ESP 0
- 4 ATM 2 ESP 0
- 5 ATM 3 ESP 0
- 6 ATM 3 ESP 0
- 7 ATM 4 ESP 0
- 8 ATM 5 ESP 0
- 9 ATM 0 ESP 0
- 10 ATM 0 ESP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 85%, 12% end level, Espanyol win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 36.5% |
| Atlético by 2 | 24.3% |
| Atlético by 1 | 24.0% |
| Draw | 12.5% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 2.4% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 0.2% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 21 | 1 | 1.85 | −0.85 |
 Espanyol | 4 | 0 | 0.21 | −0.21 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 48' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +20% ATM |
| 2 | 18' | Enzo Pablo Roco Roco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% ATM |
| 3 | 46' | Filipe Luís Kasmirski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% ESP |
| 4 | 48' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +5% ESP |
| 5 | 48' | Luciano Vietto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% ESP |
| 6 | 78' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +2% ESP |
| 7 | 84' | Mamadou Sylla Diallo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ATM |
| 8 | 84' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 81% · draw 16% · Espanyol 3%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Espanyol
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 85% · draw 12% · Espanyol 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 91% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Levante 0–1 Betis Nov 27, 2015 · replay 46% for Betis
- Las Palmas 0–2 Deportivo Nov 28, 2015 · replay 90% for Deportivo
- Celta 2–1 Sporting Nov 28, 2015 · replay 71% for Celta
- Málaga 2–2 Granada Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Barcelona 4–0 Real Sociedad Nov 28, 2015 · replay 94% for Barcelona
- Eibar 0–2 Real Madrid Nov 29, 2015 · replay 94% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 1–0 Valencia Nov 29, 2015 · replay 89% for Sevilla
- Rayo 0–3 Athletic Nov 29, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Getafe 2–0 Villarreal Nov 29, 2015 · replay 82% for Getafe