Matchday 13 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 29, 2015
Sevilla 1–0 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Sevilla beat Valencia 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Sevilla win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.0.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Sevilla about even · −11 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 8, 2 end level, Valencia win 0.
- 1 SEV 1 VAL 0
- 2 SEV 1 VAL 0
- 3 SEV 1 VAL 0
- 4 SEV 2 VAL 0
- 5 SEV 2 VAL 0
- 6 SEV 3 VAL 0
- 7 SEV 3 VAL 0
- 8 SEV 4 VAL 0
- 9 SEV 0 VAL 0
- 10 SEV 0 VAL 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sevilla win 80%, 19% end level, Valencia win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Sevilla by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sevilla by 3+ | 24.1% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 25.8% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 29.8% |
| Draw | 19.2% |
| Valencia by 1 | 1.0% |
| Valencia by 2 | 0.0% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 16 | 1 | 1.54 | −0.54 |
 Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 49' | Sergio Escudero Palomo scored from a shot | 0.19 |
When it happened
Sevilla’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Adil Rami didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% VAL |
| 2 | 27' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +6% VAL |
| 3 | 30' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% VAL |
| 4 | 30' | Éver Maximiliano David Banega didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% VAL |
| 5 | 36' | Adil Rami didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% VAL |
| 6 | 37' | Yevhen Konoplyanka didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% VAL |
| 7 | 48' | Grzegorz Krychowiak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% VAL |
| 8 | 49' | Sergio Escudero Palomo scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +25% SEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sevilla 80% · draw 19% · Valencia 1%
- Final margin
- Sevilla by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Sevilla 80% · draw 19% · Valencia 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sevilla win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Levante 0–1 Betis Nov 27, 2015 · replay 46% for Betis
- Atlético 1–0 Espanyol Nov 28, 2015 · replay 91% for Atlético
- Las Palmas 0–2 Deportivo Nov 28, 2015 · replay 90% for Deportivo
- Celta 2–1 Sporting Nov 28, 2015 · replay 71% for Celta
- Málaga 2–2 Granada Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Barcelona 4–0 Real Sociedad Nov 28, 2015 · replay 94% for Barcelona
- Eibar 0–2 Real Madrid Nov 29, 2015 · replay 94% for Real Madrid
- Rayo 0–3 Athletic Nov 29, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Getafe 2–0 Villarreal Nov 29, 2015 · replay 82% for Getafe