Matchday 13 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 28, 2015
Barcelona 4–0 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Real Sociedad 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 4 | 2.49 |
 Real Sociedad | 0 | 0.61 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Barcelona about even · −6 Real Sociedad
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 9, 1 ends level, Real Sociedad win 0.
- 1 BAR 1 RSO 0
- 2 BAR 1 RSO 0
- 3 BAR 2 RSO 0
- 4 BAR 3 RSO 1
- 5 BAR 3 RSO 0
- 6 BAR 4 RSO 0
- 7 BAR 4 RSO 0
- 8 BAR 5 RSO 0
- 9 BAR 7 RSO 0
- 10 BAR 1 RSO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 91%, 7% end level, Real Sociedad win 2%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 56.9% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 20.2% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 14.1% |
| Draw | 6.6% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 1.9% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 0.3% |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 12 | 4 | 2.49 | +1.51 |
 Real Sociedad | 10 | 0 | 0.61 | −0.61 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 21' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 40' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 52' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.35 |
| 89' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 90' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.60 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Rubén Pardo Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% BAR |
| 2 | 2' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +3% RSO |
| 3 | 12' | Andrés Iniesta Luján didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +5% RSO |
| 4 | 13' | Sergio Canales Madrazo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% BAR |
| 5 | 21' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +19% BAR |
| 6 | 40' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +11% BAR |
| 7 | 46' | Yuri Berchiche Izeta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +0% BAR |
| 8 | 52' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +2% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 95% · draw 4% · Real Sociedad 1%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 91% · draw 7% · Real Sociedad 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 94% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 13 matches, 2015-16 · Barcelona · Real Sociedad
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