Matchday 13 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 28, 2015
Málaga 2–2 Granada: who deserved to win?
Málaga and Granada drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Málaga win 8 of 10, Granada 0, and 2 end level. Málaga made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 2 | 1.75 |
 Granada | 2 | 0.55 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −35 Málaga unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 8, 2 end level, Granada win 0.
- 1 MAL 1 GRA 0
- 2 MAL 1 GRA 0
- 3 MAL 1 GRA 0
- 4 MAL 4 GRA 2
- 5 MAL 2 GRA 0
- 6 MAL 3 GRA 0
- 7 MAL 3 GRA 0
- 8 MAL 5 GRA 0
- 9 MAL 0 GRA 0
- 10 MAL 1 GRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 77%, 16% end level, Granada win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 29.8% |
| Málaga by 2 | 23.2% |
| Málaga by 1 | 23.8% |
| Draw | 16.3% |
| Granada by 1 | 5.7% |
| Granada by 2 | 0.9% |
| Granada by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 12 | 2 | 1.75 | +0.25 |
 Granada | 11 | 2 | 0.55 | +1.45 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 44' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 56' | Pablo Fornals Malla scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 59' | Juan Carlos Pérez López didn’t score from a shot | 0.48 |
| 61' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 82' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 85' | Rubén Rochina Naixes scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Marcos Alberto Angeleri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% GRA |
| 2 | 14' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% GRA |
| 3 | 44' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +27% MAL |
| 4 | 56' | Pablo Fornals Malla scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +10% MAL |
| 5 | 82' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% GRA |
| 6 | 85' | Rubén Rochina Naixes scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +43% GRA |
| 7 | 90' | José Luis García del Pozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% GRA |
| 8 | 93' | Isaac Ajayi Success didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +3% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 68% · draw 22% · Granada 10%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 77% · draw 16% · Granada 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 13 matches, 2015-16 · Málaga · Granada
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Levante 0–1 Betis Nov 27, 2015 · replay 46% for Betis
- Atlético 1–0 Espanyol Nov 28, 2015 · replay 91% for Atlético
- Las Palmas 0–2 Deportivo Nov 28, 2015 · replay 90% for Deportivo
- Celta 2–1 Sporting Nov 28, 2015 · replay 71% for Celta
- Barcelona 4–0 Real Sociedad Nov 28, 2015 · replay 94% for Barcelona
- Eibar 0–2 Real Madrid Nov 29, 2015 · replay 94% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 1–0 Valencia Nov 29, 2015 · replay 89% for Sevilla
- Rayo 0–3 Athletic Nov 29, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Getafe 2–0 Villarreal Nov 29, 2015 · replay 82% for Getafe