Matchday 13 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 29, 2015
Getafe 2–0 Villarreal: who deserved to win?
Getafe beat Villarreal 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Getafe win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Getafe made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 2 | 1.48 |
 Villarreal | 0 | 0.43 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Getafe about even · −18 Villarreal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 7, 2 end level, Villarreal win 1.
- 1 GET 1 VIL 0
- 2 GET 1 VIL 0
- 3 GET 1 VIL 0
- 4 GET 2 VIL 0
- 5 GET 2 VIL 0
- 6 GET 3 VIL 0
- 7 GET 4 VIL 0
- 8 GET 0 VIL 0
- 9 GET 1 VIL 1
- 10 GET 0 VIL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 72%, 20% end level, Villarreal win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Getafe by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 22.5% |
| Getafe by 2 | 22.9% |
| Getafe by 1 | 26.3% |
| Draw | 19.9% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 7.1% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 1.2% |
| Villarreal by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 12 | 2 | 1.48 | +0.52 |
 Villarreal | 7 | 0 | 0.43 | −0.43 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 20' | Ángel Lafita Castillo scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 50' | Álvaro Vázquez García scored from a shot | 0.51 |
| 67' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Stefan Šćepović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% VIL |
| 2 | 7' | Manuel Trigueros Muñoz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% GET |
| 3 | 7' | Samuel García Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% GET |
| 4 | 15' | Matías Nahuel Leiva Esquivel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% GET |
| 5 | 20' | Ángel Lafita Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +23% GET |
| 6 | 39' | Mario Gaspar Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% GET |
| 7 | 42' | Stefan Šćepović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% VIL |
| 8 | 50' | Álvaro Vázquez García scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +6% GET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 90% · draw 8% · Villarreal 2%
- Final margin
- Getafe by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Getafe
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Getafe by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 72% · draw 20% · Villarreal 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Getafe win 82% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Levante 0–1 Betis Nov 27, 2015 · replay 46% for Betis
- Atlético 1–0 Espanyol Nov 28, 2015 · replay 91% for Atlético
- Las Palmas 0–2 Deportivo Nov 28, 2015 · replay 90% for Deportivo
- Celta 2–1 Sporting Nov 28, 2015 · replay 71% for Celta
- Málaga 2–2 Granada Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Barcelona 4–0 Real Sociedad Nov 28, 2015 · replay 94% for Barcelona
- Eibar 0–2 Real Madrid Nov 29, 2015 · replay 94% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 1–0 Valencia Nov 29, 2015 · replay 89% for Sevilla
- Rayo 0–3 Athletic Nov 29, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic