Matchday 13 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 28, 2015
Celta 2–1 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Sporting 2–1, and the replays lean Celta’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Sporting, 3 end level. Celta made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 2 | 1.55 |
 Sporting Gijón | 1 | 0.82 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Celta lucky · −29 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 6, 3 end level, Sporting win 1.
- 1 CEL 2 SPO 1
- 2 CEL 1 SPO 0
- 3 CEL 1 SPO 0
- 4 CEL 2 SPO 0
- 5 CEL 2 SPO 0
- 6 CEL 5 SPO 2
- 7 CEL 2 SPO 2
- 8 CEL 0 SPO 0
- 9 CEL 2 SPO 2
- 10 CEL 1 SPO 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 59%, 25% end level, Sporting win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 14.3% |
| Celta by 2 | 18.2% |
| Celta by 1 | 26.3% |
| Draw | 25.3% |
| Sporting by 1 | 11.8% |
| Sporting by 2 | 3.3% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 6 | 2 | 1.55 | +0.45 |
 Sporting | 8 | 1 | 0.82 | +0.18 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela scored from a shot | 0.80 |
| 64' | Carlos Castro García scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 83' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shot | 0.30 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela scored from a shotFinishing · 80% chance | +5% CEL |
| 2 | 23' | Daniel Arnaud N''Di didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +7% CEL |
| 3 | 40' | Théo Bongonda Mbul''Ofeko Batombo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +3% SPO |
| 4 | 42' | Bernardo José Espinosa Zúñiga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% CEL |
| 5 | 64' | Carlos Castro García scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +25% SPO |
| 6 | 74' | Carlos Castro García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% CEL |
| 7 | 81' | Carlos Castro García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% CEL |
| 8 | 83' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +32% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 59% · draw 25% · Sporting 15%
- Final margin
- Celta by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 59% · draw 25% · Sporting 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 13 matches, 2015-16 · Celta · Sporting
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Levante 0–1 Betis Nov 27, 2015 · replay 46% for Betis
- Atlético 1–0 Espanyol Nov 28, 2015 · replay 91% for Atlético
- Las Palmas 0–2 Deportivo Nov 28, 2015 · replay 90% for Deportivo
- Málaga 2–2 Granada Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Barcelona 4–0 Real Sociedad Nov 28, 2015 · replay 94% for Barcelona
- Eibar 0–2 Real Madrid Nov 29, 2015 · replay 94% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 1–0 Valencia Nov 29, 2015 · replay 89% for Sevilla
- Rayo 0–3 Athletic Nov 29, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Getafe 2–0 Villarreal Nov 29, 2015 · replay 82% for Getafe