Matchday 13 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 28, 2015
Las Palmas 0–2 Deportivo: who deserved to win?
Deportivo beat Las Palmas 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Deportivo win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Deportivo made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.4. An own goal helped Deportivo.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 0 | 0.43 |
 Deportivo La Coruña | 2 | 2.06 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Deportivo about even · −10 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 0, 1 ends level, Deportivo win 9.
- 1 LPA 0 DEP 0
- 2 LPA 1 DEP 6
- 3 LPA 0 DEP 4
- 4 LPA 0 DEP 3
- 5 LPA 1 DEP 4
- 6 LPA 0 DEP 2
- 7 LPA 0 DEP 2
- 8 LPA 1 DEP 2
- 9 LPA 0 DEP 1
- 10 LPA 0 DEP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 4%, 12% end level, Deportivo win 84%. The line is what actually happened: Deportivo by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 0.6% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 3.2% |
| Draw | 12.0% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 21.8% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 23.2% |
| Deportivo by 3+ | 39.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 8 | 0 | 0.43 | −0.43 |
 Deportivo | 10 | 1 | 2.06 | −1.06 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 90' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.70 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18' | The game turned hereOwn goal by nan, for DeportivoOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +26% DEP |
| 2 | 44' | Alejandro Bergantiños García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +3% LPA |
| 3 | 44' | Alejandro Bergantiños García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +4% LPA |
| 4 | 67' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +2% LPA |
| 5 | 67' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +3% LPA |
| 6 | 73' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +3% LPA |
| 7 | 89' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% DEP |
| 8 | 89' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 4% · draw 15% · Deportivo 81%
- Final margin
- Deportivo by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Deportivo by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 4% · draw 12% · Deportivo 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Deportivo win 90% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 13 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Deportivo
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Levante 0–1 Betis Nov 27, 2015 · replay 46% for Betis
- Atlético 1–0 Espanyol Nov 28, 2015 · replay 91% for Atlético
- Celta 2–1 Sporting Nov 28, 2015 · replay 71% for Celta
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- Barcelona 4–0 Real Sociedad Nov 28, 2015 · replay 94% for Barcelona
- Eibar 0–2 Real Madrid Nov 29, 2015 · replay 94% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 1–0 Valencia Nov 29, 2015 · replay 89% for Sevilla
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