Matchday 13 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 29, 2015
Eibar 0–2 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Eibar 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 0 | 0.34 |
 Real Madrid | 2 | 2.46 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Real Madrid about even · −6 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eibar win 0, 1 ends level, Real Madrid win 9.
- 1 EIB 0 RMA 0
- 2 EIB 0 RMA 6
- 3 EIB 0 RMA 5
- 4 EIB 0 RMA 4
- 5 EIB 0 RMA 3
- 6 EIB 0 RMA 3
- 7 EIB 0 RMA 2
- 8 EIB 0 RMA 2
- 9 EIB 0 RMA 1
- 10 EIB 1 RMA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Eibar win 2%, 8% end level, Real Madrid win 89%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eibar by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Eibar by 2 | 0.3% |
| Eibar by 1 | 2.0% |
| Draw | 8.3% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 16.9% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 22.0% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 50.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 8 | 0 | 0.34 | −0.34 |
 Real Madrid | 17 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.46 | −0.46 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 42' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 45' | Gareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 70' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 81' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Eibar’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +10% EIB |
| 2 | 14' | Mateo Kovačić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% EIB |
| 3 | 42' | The game turned hereGareth Frank Bale scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +29% RMA |
| 4 | 45' | Gareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +6% EIB |
| 5 | 54' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% EIB |
| 6 | 57' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% RMA |
| 7 | 58' | Aleksandar Pantić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% RMA |
| 8 | 70' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +3% EIB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eibar 1% · draw 2% · Real Madrid 97%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Eibar
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Eibar 2% · draw 8% · Real Madrid 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 94% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 13 matches, 2015-16 · Eibar · Real Madrid
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- Málaga 2–2 Granada Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Barcelona 4–0 Real Sociedad Nov 28, 2015 · replay 94% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 1–0 Valencia Nov 29, 2015 · replay 89% for Sevilla
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