Matchday 13 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 29, 2015
Rayo 0–3 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Rayo 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Athletic win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 1.61 |
 Athletic Club | 3 | 2.26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Athletic about even · −17 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 1, 1 ends level, Athletic win 8.
- 1 RAY 2 ATH 1
- 2 RAY 1 ATH 1
- 3 RAY 0 ATH 5
- 4 RAY 0 ATH 4
- 5 RAY 2 ATH 5
- 6 RAY 0 ATH 3
- 7 RAY 1 ATH 3
- 8 RAY 1 ATH 3
- 9 RAY 1 ATH 2
- 10 RAY 0 ATH 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 10%, 13% end level, Athletic win 77%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 1.1% |
| Rayo by 2 | 2.7% |
| Rayo by 1 | 6.3% |
| Draw | 13.0% |
| Athletic by 1 | 18.9% |
| Athletic by 2 | 20.9% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 37.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 15 | 0 | 1.61 | −1.61 |
 Athletic | 10 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.26 | +0.74 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 0' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 23' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 59' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shot | 0.61 |
| 90' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +17% ATH |
| 2 | 11' | Pablo Hernández Domínguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% ATH |
| 3 | 20' | Adrián Embarba Blázquez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% ATH |
| 4 | 23' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +4% ATH |
| 5 | 24' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +0% RAY |
| 6 | 32' | Roberto Trashorras Gayoso didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ATH |
| 7 | 57' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +1% RAY |
| 8 | 59' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shotFinishing · 61% chance | +1% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 9% · draw 14% · Athletic 77%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 10% · draw 13% · Athletic 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Levante 0–1 Betis Nov 27, 2015 · replay 46% for Betis
- Atlético 1–0 Espanyol Nov 28, 2015 · replay 91% for Atlético
- Las Palmas 0–2 Deportivo Nov 28, 2015 · replay 90% for Deportivo
- Celta 2–1 Sporting Nov 28, 2015 · replay 71% for Celta
- Málaga 2–2 Granada Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Barcelona 4–0 Real Sociedad Nov 28, 2015 · replay 94% for Barcelona
- Eibar 0–2 Real Madrid Nov 29, 2015 · replay 94% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 1–0 Valencia Nov 29, 2015 · replay 89% for Sevilla
- Getafe 2–0 Villarreal Nov 29, 2015 · replay 82% for Getafe