Matchday 13 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 27, 2015
Levante 0–1 Betis: who deserved to win?
Betis beat Levante 1–0, but the replays call it even: Betis win 3 of 10, Levante 4, 3 end level. Levante made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Levante | 0 | 1.43 |
 Real Betis | 1 | 0.86 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Betis lucky · −54 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 4, 3 end level, Betis win 3.
- 1 LEV 2 BET 1
- 2 LEV 1 BET 0
- 3 LEV 3 BET 1
- 4 LEV 3 BET 0
- 5 LEV 0 BET 0
- 6 LEV 1 BET 1
- 7 LEV 1 BET 1
- 8 LEV 1 BET 3
- 9 LEV 0 BET 1
- 10 LEV 1 BET 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 41%, 27% end level, Betis win 33%. The line is what actually happened: Betis by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 6.3% |
| Levante by 2 | 11.8% |
| Levante by 1 | 22.5% |
| Draw | 26.6% |
| Betis by 1 | 20.3% |
| Betis by 2 | 8.7% |
| Betis by 3+ | 3.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 14 | 0 | 1.43 | −1.43 |
 Betis | 11 | 1 | 0.86 | +0.14 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 8' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shot | 0.76 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | The game turned hereRubén Castro Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +23% BET |
| 2 | 8' | José Antonio García Rabasco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% BET |
| 3 | 8' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 76% chance | +19% BET |
| 4 | 32' | Joaquín Sánchez Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% LEV |
| 5 | 51' | Pedro López Muñoz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% BET |
| 6 | 54' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% BET |
| 7 | 64' | Francisco Miguel Varela Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +4% LEV |
| 8 | 90' | Víctor Camarasa Ferrando didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 53% · draw 27% · Betis 20%
- Final margin
- Betis by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Levante by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 41% · draw 27% · Betis 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Betis win 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Atlético 1–0 Espanyol Nov 28, 2015 · replay 91% for Atlético
- Las Palmas 0–2 Deportivo Nov 28, 2015 · replay 90% for Deportivo
- Celta 2–1 Sporting Nov 28, 2015 · replay 71% for Celta
- Málaga 2–2 Granada Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Barcelona 4–0 Real Sociedad Nov 28, 2015 · replay 94% for Barcelona
- Eibar 0–2 Real Madrid Nov 29, 2015 · replay 94% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 1–0 Valencia Nov 29, 2015 · replay 89% for Sevilla
- Rayo 0–3 Athletic Nov 29, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Getafe 2–0 Villarreal Nov 29, 2015 · replay 82% for Getafe