Matchday 16 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 19, 2015
Betis 0–0 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Betis and Sevilla drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Betis win 1 of 10, Sevilla 6, and 3 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 0 | 0.33 |
 Sevilla | 0 | 1.10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Betis about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 1, 3 end level, Sevilla win 6.
- 1 BET 3 SEV 2
- 2 BET 0 SEV 0
- 3 BET 0 SEV 0
- 4 BET 0 SEV 0
- 5 BET 0 SEV 3
- 6 BET 0 SEV 2
- 7 BET 0 SEV 1
- 8 BET 0 SEV 1
- 9 BET 1 SEV 2
- 10 BET 0 SEV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 12%, 32% end level, Sevilla win 56%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 0.2% |
| Betis by 2 | 1.9% |
| Betis by 1 | 9.9% |
| Draw | 32.3% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 31.8% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 16.0% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 7.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 13 | 0 | 0.33 | −0.33 |
 Sevilla | 9 | 0 | 1.10 | −1.10 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Alfred John Momar N''Diaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% SEV |
| 2 | 10' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +11% BET |
| 3 | 11' | Michael Krohn-Dehli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% BET |
| 4 | 32' | Grzegorz Krychowiak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% BET |
| 5 | 45' | Yevhen Konoplyanka didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% BET |
| 6 | 45' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% BET |
| 7 | 53' | Daniel Ceballos Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SEV |
| 8 | 87' | Grzegorz Krychowiak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 11% · draw 31% · Sevilla 58%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 12% · draw 32% · Sevilla 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Espanyol 1–0 Las Palmas Dec 19, 2015 · replay 62% for Espanyol
- Valencia 2–2 Getafe Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Deportivo 2–0 Eibar Dec 19, 2015 · replay 80% for Deportivo
- Athletic 2–0 Levante Dec 20, 2015 · replay 91% for Athletic
- Real Madrid 10–2 Rayo Dec 20, 2015 · replay 99% for Real Madrid
- Málaga 1–0 Atlético Dec 20, 2015 · replay 63% for Málaga
- Real Sociedad 0–2 Villarreal Dec 20, 2015 · replay 56% for Villarreal
- Granada 0–2 Celta Dec 20, 2015 · replay 92% for Celta
- Sporting 1–3 Barcelona Feb 17, 2016 · replay 91% for Barcelona