Matchday 16 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 20, 2015
Granada 0–2 Celta: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Granada 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Celta win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Celta made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Granada | 0 | 0.33 |
 Celta Vigo | 2 | 2.14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Celta about even · −8 Granada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Granada win 0, 1 ends level, Celta win 9.
- 1 GRA 0 CEL 0
- 2 GRA 0 CEL 5
- 3 GRA 0 CEL 4
- 4 GRA 0 CEL 3
- 5 GRA 1 CEL 4
- 6 GRA 0 CEL 2
- 7 GRA 0 CEL 2
- 8 GRA 1 CEL 3
- 9 GRA 0 CEL 1
- 10 GRA 0 CEL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Granada win 3%, 10% end level, Celta win 87%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Granada by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Granada by 2 | 0.4% |
| Granada by 1 | 2.2% |
| Draw | 10.4% |
| Celta by 1 | 23.7% |
| Celta by 2 | 25.5% |
| Celta by 3+ | 37.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Granada | 11 | 0 | 0.33 | −0.33 |
 Celta | 10 | 2 | 2.14 | −0.14 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 20' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela scored from a shot | 0.94 |
| 29' | Théo Bongonda Mbul''Ofeko Batombo didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 44' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shot | 0.57 |
When it happened
Granada’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% GRA |
| 2 | 15' | Adalberto Peñaranda Maestre didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% CEL |
| 3 | 20' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela scored from a shotFinishing · 94% chance | +2% CEL |
| 4 | 24' | Daniel Wass didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +1% GRA |
| 5 | 27' | Théo Bongonda Mbul''Ofeko Batombo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% GRA |
| 6 | 29' | Théo Bongonda Mbul''Ofeko Batombo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +6% GRA |
| 7 | 44' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shotFinishing · 57% chance | +7% CEL |
| 8 | 68' | David Rodríguez Lombán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Granada 1% · draw 3% · Celta 97%
- Final margin
- Celta by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Granada 3% · draw 10% · Celta 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 92% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 16 matches, 2015-16 · Granada · Celta
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Espanyol 1–0 Las Palmas Dec 19, 2015 · replay 62% for Espanyol
- Betis 0–0 Sevilla Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Valencia 2–2 Getafe Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Deportivo 2–0 Eibar Dec 19, 2015 · replay 80% for Deportivo
- Athletic 2–0 Levante Dec 20, 2015 · replay 91% for Athletic
- Real Madrid 10–2 Rayo Dec 20, 2015 · replay 99% for Real Madrid
- Málaga 1–0 Atlético Dec 20, 2015 · replay 63% for Málaga
- Real Sociedad 0–2 Villarreal Dec 20, 2015 · replay 56% for Villarreal
- Sporting 1–3 Barcelona Feb 17, 2016 · replay 91% for Barcelona