Matchday 16 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 17, 2016
Sporting 1–3 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Sporting 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 1 | 0.57 |
 Barcelona | 3 | 2.36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Barcelona about even · −9 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 0, 1 ends level, Barcelona win 9.
- 1 SPO 1 BAR 1
- 2 SPO 0 BAR 5
- 3 SPO 0 BAR 4
- 4 SPO 0 BAR 4
- 5 SPO 0 BAR 3
- 6 SPO 1 BAR 4
- 7 SPO 1 BAR 3
- 8 SPO 1 BAR 3
- 9 SPO 0 BAR 1
- 10 SPO 3 BAR 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 4%, 10% end level, Barcelona win 86%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Sporting by 2 | 0.7% |
| Sporting by 1 | 3.0% |
| Draw | 10.1% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 18.1% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 22.0% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 46.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 6 | 1 | 0.57 | +0.43 |
 Barcelona | 17 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.36 | +0.64 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 24' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 26' | Carlos Castro García scored from a shot | 0.41 |
| 30' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 55' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 61' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 66' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +6% SPO |
| 2 | 24' | The game turned hereLionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +27% BAR |
| 3 | 26' | Carlos Castro García scored from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +17% SPO |
| 4 | 30' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +26% BAR |
| 5 | 55' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +6% SPO |
| 6 | 55' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +3% SPO |
| 7 | 61' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +11% SPO |
| 8 | 66' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +12% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 1% · draw 4% · Barcelona 95%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 4% · draw 10% · Barcelona 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 91% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 16 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Barcelona
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