Matchday 16 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 20, 2015
Real Madrid 10–2 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Rayo 10–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 10 of 10. Real Madrid made the better chances: 5.1 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 10 | 5.14 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0.64 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Real Madrid about even · −1 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 10, 0 end level, Rayo win 0.
- 1 RMA 4 RAY 2
- 2 RMA 6 RAY 3
- 3 RMA 4 RAY 0
- 4 RMA 6 RAY 1
- 5 RMA 6 RAY 0
- 6 RMA 6 RAY 0
- 7 RMA 8 RAY 1
- 8 RMA 8 RAY 0
- 9 RMA 11 RAY 2
- 10 RMA 11 RAY 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Madrid win 99%, 1% end level, Rayo win 0%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 8.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 92.3% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 4.6% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 2.1% |
| Draw | 0.7% |
| Rayo by 1 | 0.2% |
| Rayo by 2 | 0.1% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 30 (1 pen) | 10 | 5.14 | +4.86 |
 Rayo | 9 | 2 | 0.64 | +1.36 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Danilo Luiz da Silva scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 9' | Antonio Amaya Carazo scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 11' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 24' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a shot | 0.28 |
| 29' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 40' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a shot | 0.46 |
| 46' | Gareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 47' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 49' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 52' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 60' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a shot | 0.48 |
| 69' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 78' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 89' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% RMA |
| 2 | 2' | Danilo Luiz da Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +19% RMA |
| 3 | 9' | Antonio Amaya Carazo scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +20% RAY |
| 4 | 11' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +21% RAY |
| 5 | 24' | The game turned hereGareth Frank Bale scored from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +20% RMA |
| 6 | 29' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% RMA |
| 7 | 40' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +6% RMA |
| 8 | 47' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +2% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Madrid 100% · draw 0% · Rayo 0%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 8
- Luck in goals
- 2.6 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 5.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Madrid 99% · draw 1% · Rayo 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 99% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Espanyol 1–0 Las Palmas Dec 19, 2015 · replay 62% for Espanyol
- Betis 0–0 Sevilla Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Valencia 2–2 Getafe Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Deportivo 2–0 Eibar Dec 19, 2015 · replay 80% for Deportivo
- Athletic 2–0 Levante Dec 20, 2015 · replay 91% for Athletic
- Málaga 1–0 Atlético Dec 20, 2015 · replay 63% for Málaga
- Real Sociedad 0–2 Villarreal Dec 20, 2015 · replay 56% for Villarreal
- Granada 0–2 Celta Dec 20, 2015 · replay 92% for Celta
- Sporting 1–3 Barcelona Feb 17, 2016 · replay 91% for Barcelona